Showing posts with label SILV. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SILV. Show all posts

Thursday, January 1, 2026

Portfolio Summary for December 2025

As of 31 December 2025

CDP

Security # shares Price S$ %
DBS 440 56.36 3.97
UOB 400 35.06 2.25
OCBC Bank 700 19.76 2.22
SGX 3,200 16.96 8.42
ST Engineering 6,900 8.42 9.31
Powermatic Data 13,800 3.20 7.08
Sheng Siong 19,100 2.63 8.05
TheHourGlass 19,600 2.25 7.07
VICOM Ltd 21,500 1.64 5.65
Micro-Mechanics 18,400 1.62 4.78
UMS 31,200 1.42 7.10
Credit Bureau Asia 30,100 1.30 6.27
Riverstone 40,500 0.87 5.65
Info-Tech 41,400 0.78 5.17
China Sunsine 41,800 0.80 5.36
HRnetGroup 21,900 0.75 2.63
Nanofilm 36,100 0.585 3.38
Kimly 27,000 0.39 1.69
HC Surgical 35,500 0.365 2.08
Audience Analytics 38,900 0.26 1.62
Portfolio Value = S$624,131
YTD Dividends Received = S$18,656
YTD SBL Fees Received = S$777

Trades
- Bought 41,400 shares of Info-Tech Systems Limited.

SRS

Security # shares Price S$ %
TheHourGlass 5,000 2.25 7.80
Micro-Mechanics 5,400 1.62 6.06
NetLink NBN Trust 108,000 0.965 72.24
HRnetGroup 7,500 0.75 3.90
Nanofilm 12,500 0.585 5.07
HC Surgical 19,500 0.365 4.93
Portfolio Value = S$144,273

Trades
None

Singapore Savings Bonds

Security Amount Coupon Now
GX22120S S$14,000 3.58%
GX23010Z S$15,000 2.95%
GX23110V S$20,000 3.21%
GX23120Z S$20,000 3.30%
GX24060A S$20,000 3.26%
GX24070S S$20,000 3.26%
GX24080W S$20,000 3.19%
Portfolio Value = S$129,000
YTD Coupons Received = S$4,146

Speculative Play

Security # shares Price US$
Kep Pacific Oak REIT 70,000 0.235
Portfolio Value = US$16,450

Trades
None


Commentary:
In the blink of an eye, Year 2025 has come to a close.

What an eventful year it has been.  In the political arena, U.S. President Donald J. Trump announced sweeping tariffs on both friends and foes alike, throwing the global economy into disarray.  At the same time, the war of words escalated between U.S. and China.  New Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi joined the fray, angering China with her parliamentary remarks that a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan, potentially requiring a military response.  There has been rumour that Chinese President Xi Jinping told his military staff to be ready for the Taiwan invasion by Year 2027 [news].  The situation has never been more volatile.  (This video [link] summarizes what may happen if the Taiwan invasion occurs.)

Despite the wild swings due to the U.S. tariffs, global equity markets performed admirably well and ended 2025 on a high note.  The S&P 500 Index closed up 16.4 percent YoY.  The MSCI World Index returned 19.5 percent over the same period.  Even our local Straits Times Index ("STI") found a tailwind, logging a positive 22.7 percent YoY.

One-year chart of the Straits Times Index. (Source: TradingView)

One interesting observation is that the iEdge Singapore Next 50 Index, which tracks the performance of the next fifty largest companies listed on the SGX Mainboard (excluding the thirty largest companies by market capitalization) performed better, logging a positive 26.7 percent return in 2025.

This hints of investor participation in the broader Singapore stock market, not just in the main STI constituents.  There is some doubt though whether the momentum can be sustained [commentary].

In the fixed income space, the U.S. Federal Reserve implemented three 25-basis point rate cuts in September, October and December 2025 respectively.  This led to the fall in interest rate on our shores.  Gone are the days when SGD fixed deposits can earn a yield above 3 percent.  With SSB and SGS Treasury yield hovering in the paltry 1+ percent range, and Singapore's core inflation hitting as high as 1.2 percent [news], there is little margin for consolation.  I doubt I will be buying these bonds anytime soon.

On the commodities side, gold price continued its stellar trajectory past US$4,500 per ounce before hitting a selloff near the year end [source].  There is a report stating that central banks' purchase of the yellow metal had picked up significantly in the last few months of the year [report].  Likewise, silver also found a following among investors.  Silver spot price rose more than two-fold from US$30 to US$78 per ounce [source].  This reeks of speculative fervour in the market.  The precious metals have become even more precious.  That said, I am not a fan of non-productive assets, so gold and silver do not have a place in my portfolio.

Conversely, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin went on a roller-coaster ride, going as high as US$124k before ending the year lower at US$88k [source].  Ethereum followed suit, hitting a peak of US$4.8k before closing lower close to US$3k [source].  The extreme volatility in cryptocurrencies is too much for my weak heart.  You can call me old-school, but I wouldn't touch cryptos with a ten-foot pole.

Best-selling author Robert Kiyosaki offers a different perspective on holding precious metals and cryptos:



However, I do not think public trust in state institutions is going to disappear overnight.  So...not a reason for me to get on board the bandwagon yet.

2025 had shaped up to be a fruitful year for my personal life too.

At the workplace, my boss put me on trial for a new senior role in the team.  It involved co-ordinating effort between different stakeholders in the company to resolve client issues effectively.  I believe I had placed my best foot forward.  Whether my performance had been up to mark or not, I will know during my annual job review in February 2026.

In the family, my older boy is coping well in HCI.  His academic result is satisfactory so far, and he was chosen to be a student councillor, which was what he had set out to achieve in 2025.  My younger boy had performed well in his P5 studies too.  He participated in a few Robotics competitions through the year, representing his school as well as outside.  I am glad he received the Edusave Scholarship Award and the EAGLES Award this year.  I hope my younger boy will qualify for DSA-Sec come June 2026, and that he will score well for his PSLE, which is a major milestone for every child in Singapore.

My CDP portfolio closed the year with a market value of S$624,131.  This is a significant change from the same time last year (2024: S$431,135).  One reason is because I have invested in a few new counters in 2025.  I would have liked to put more money to work in the market, but valuations are a bit stretched at the moment, especially for the local bank stocks.  I shall be patient and wait for a more opportune time.  (Sure, I may miss out on the fat dividends, but note that the market operates in cycles.  As retracement occurs, there is *always* a better opportunity down the road when Mr. Market comes knocking.)

In December, I initiated a new position in Info-Tech Systems Limited ("Info-Tech"), a Singapore-headquartered company supplying HRM software to mid-market firms in Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong and India.  Info-Tech charges customers upfront and renders its services over the subscription period.  Based on its reported results over the past few years, this asset-light company has a visible recurring revenue stream, healthy margins and double-digit ROE.  Info-Tech is also net cash at the moment, which is appealing.  My positive experience with Silverlake Axis Limited in the past (now delisted) is also one reason why I favour software companies.

DBS digiWealth (former NAV Planner) puts my current net worth somewhere around S$1.77M:


This is an uptick from S$1.45M in 2024.  I shall continue to build up my source of dividend income as I grow older.  I aim to retire (or at least semi-retire) after my 55th birthday.  That is when my kids are grown up and can take care of themselves, and I can pursue my interest to travel and see the world.  Less than a decade to go!

That's it, folks.  Before I sign off, let me share a piece of good news: the CPF Basic Healthcare Sum has been adjusted to S$79,000 in 2026.  If you have spare cash, this is a good chance to top up your Medisave Account and earn some tax relief at the same time.

Wishing you a wonderful start to the Year 2026, my friends!




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Monday, September 30, 2024

Portfolio Summary for September 2024

As of 30 September 2024

CDP

Security # shares Price S$ %
DBS 440 38.05 4.00
UOB 400 32.17 3.07
OCBC Bank 700 15.10 2.53
SGX 3,200 11.42 8.73
ST Engineering 6,900 4.66 7.68
Powermatic Data 8,500 3.47 7.05
TheHourGlass 19,600 1.60 7.49
Sheng Siong 19,100 1.53 6.98
Micro-Mechanics 18,400 1.61 7.08
VICOM Ltd 21,500 1.36 6.99
UMS 31,200 1.07 7.97
Credit Bureau Asia 30,100 0.93 6.69
Nanofilm 36,100 0.865 7.46
HRnetGroup 21,900 0.675 3.53
TalkMed Group 34,500 0.43 3.54
China Sunsine 41,800 0.475 4.74
Kimly 27,000 0.325 2.10
HC Surgical 35,500 0.28 2.37
Portfolio Value = S$418,611
YTD Dividends Received = S$13,275
YTD SBL Fees Received = S$243

Trades
None

SRS

Security # shares Price S$ %
TheHourGlass 5,000 1.60 4.85
Sheng Siong 8,700 1.53 8.08
Micro-Mechanics 5,400 1.61 5.27
VICOM Ltd 5,500 1.36 4.54
Credit Bureau Asia 5,700 0.93 3.22
Nanofilm 12,500 0.865 6.56
HRnetGroup 7,500 0.675 3.07
Kimly 5,800 0.325 1.14
HC Surgical 19,500 0.28 3.31
NetLink NBN Trust 108,000 0.915 59.95
Portfolio Value = S$164,826

Trades
- Sold 10,800 shares of China Sunsine Chemicals.

Singapore Savings Bonds

Security Amount Coupon Now
GX22120S S$14,000 3.26%
GX23010Z S$15,000 2.95%
GX23110V S$20,000 3.21%
GX23120Z S$20,000 3.30%
GX24060A S$20,000 3.26%
GX24070S S$20,000 3.26%
GX24080W S$20,000 3.19%
Portfolio Value = S$129,000

Speculative Play

Security # shares Price US$
Kep Pacific Oak REIT 70,000 0.27
Portfolio Value = US$18,900

Trades
None


Commentary:
September passed so swiftly.  We are down to the last calendar quarter of the year.  The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to go ahead with a 50 basis point cut, bringing the Federal Fund Target Rate down to the range between 4.75% and 5.00%.  As expected, the local S-Reits found a strong tailwind from this event.  The SGX S-REIT Index gained 4.04% month-on-month.  The benchmark Straits Times Index was even more impressive, soaring 4.13% over the same period.

Contrary to the jubilant mood in the market, I sat pat on my hands and did not execute any buy trade.  It is better to be patient now and wait for the bullishness to recede first.  Legendary investor Warren Buffett offered this timeless wisdom in his 1986 Berkshire Hathaway Chairman's Letter [here]:

What we do know, however, is that occasional outbreaks of those two super-contagious diseases, fear and greed, will forever occur in the investment community. The timing of these epidemics will be unpredictable. And the market aberrations produced by them will be equally unpredictable, both as to duration and degree. Therefore, we never try to anticipate the arrival or departure of either disease. Our goal is more modest: we simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.
Warren Buffett

Be fearful when others are greedy.  Greed is clearly visible, with perhaps a touch of fear (of missing out).  The S&P 500 Index surged to hit a lifetime high on September 19 after the interest rate cut [news].  That said, what goes up must come down.  Call me a fool for missing the ride, but I am keeping my powder dry for a more rational buying level down the road.

Q: Will the opportunity come?

Me: You bet.  When the momentum swings the other way.

Q: When will it come?

Me: I don't know, but I ain't losing sleep about it.

I tendered my Silverlake Axis shares and received a cheque as well as 37,100 Redeemable Preferred Shares ("RPS") from the offeror E2I Pte Ltd.  The RPS came in the form of a certificate via registered mail.  This is my first time holding a private security, and possibly the closest to holding a physical share certificate.  All of my other holdings are held electronically within SGX CDP.

I continue to trim my SRS portfolio by selling China Sunsine Chemicals ("CSSC").  CSSC management has been engaging in daily share buyback, so I am pretty sure the company acquired my stake.  As mentioned in my previous blog post [here], I am consolidating the holdings in my SRS portfolio for easier monitoring.

In the family, my two kids are having their end-of-year examinations now, with my elder boy going through his PSLE.  We try to minimize any outing and social gathering during this stressful period.  However, we still make regular visits to the Ang Mo Kio Public Library on weekends.  We find the library to be a more conducive place for my kids to revise, compared to staying home.  There are simply too many distractions in the house.  I am so looking forward to the day when the examinations are over.

Signing off for now.  Take care!




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Saturday, August 31, 2024

Portfolio Summary for August 2024

As of 31 August 2024

CDP

Security # shares Price S$ %
DBS 440 36.36 3.88
UOB 400 31.39 3.04
OCBC Bank 700 14.55 2.47
SGX 3,200 10.83 8.40
ST Engineering 6,900 4.45 7.45
Powermatic Data 8,500 3.55 7.32
TheHourGlass 19,600 1.53 7.27
Sheng Siong 19,100 1.51 6.99
Micro-Mechanics 18,400 1.54 6.87
VICOM Ltd 21,500 1.32 6.88
UMS 31,200 1.02 7.72
Credit Bureau Asia 30,100 0.89 6.50
Nanofilm 36,100 0.745 6.52
HRnetGroup 21,900 0.695 3.69
TalkMed Group 34,500 0.395 3.30
China Sunsine 41,800 0.395 4.00
Kimly 27,000 0.31 2.03
Silverlake Axis 37,100 0.375 3.37
HC Surgical 35,500 0.265 2.28
Portfolio Value = S$412,377
YTD Dividends Received = S$12,530
YTD SBL Fees Received = S$158

Trades
- Bought 31,200 shares of UMS Holdings.

SRS

Security # shares Price S$ %
TheHourGlass 5,000 1.53 4.73
Sheng Siong 8,700 1.51 8.12
Micro-Mechanics 5,400 1.54 5.14
VICOM Ltd 5,500 1.32 4.49
Credit Bureau Asia 5,700 0.89 3.14
Nanofilm 12,500 0.745 5.76
HRnetGroup 7,500 0.695 3.22
China Sunsine 10,800 0.395 2.64
Kimly 5,800 0.31 1.11
HC Surgical 19,500 0.265 3.20
NetLink NBN Trust 108,000 0.875 58.44
Portfolio Value = S$161,693

Trades
- Sold 1,300 shares of SGX.
- Sold 6,000 shares of Silverlake Axis.
- Bought 12,000 units of NetLink NBN Trust.

Singapore Savings Bonds

Security Amount Coupon Now
GX22120S S$14,000 3.26%
GX23010Z S$15,000 2.95%
GX23110V S$20,000 3.21%
GX23120Z S$20,000 3.30%
GX24060A S$20,000 3.26%
GX24070S S$20,000 3.26%
GX24080W S$20,000 3.19%
Portfolio Value = S$129,000

Speculative Play

Security # shares Price US$
Kep Pacific Oak REIT 70,000 0.26
Portfolio Value = US$18,200

Trades
None


Commentary:
August is always a favourite month, because we celebrate three birthdays in the family - my wife's, my older boy's and mine.  (Four if you include our nation's birthday.)  Contrary to the usual birthday cake, we decided to celebrate by indulging in crab dishes from Melben Seafood restaurant.  It was a messy affair, but oh so finger-licking good!

In the equity market, Citigroup issued SELL analyst recommendations on all three local banks DBS, UOB and OCBC.  This caused their prices to fall more than 5 percent on 5 Aug.  As the interest rate cut materializes, the bank stocks are likely to take a hit.  That is my cue to load up.  *Rub hands in anticipation*

I initiated a new position in UMS Holdings ("UMS").  This is the second semiconductor industry counter in my portfolio.  The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical in nature, hence dramatic swings in earnings are to be expected.  So far, UMS fundamentals looks all right.  I will monitor for a while before considering whether to add on.

I continued to adjust my SRS portfolio by closing off my position in SGX as the stock hit new 52-week high.  Interestingly, after the announcement of Silverlake Axis ("SLA") voluntary unconditional offer (see my last blog post [here]), SLA share price shot up past the cash offer of 36 cents per share.  I took the opportunity to sell the shares in my SRS portfolio, pocketing a tiny extra premium.

I also added more units of NetLink NBN Trust ("NetLink").  I am not too concerned by the recent y/y drop in 1Q2025 revenue and EBITDA.  Over the long run, NetLink still has the opportunity to grow as more new HDB housing estates get developed.  Net gearing is maintained at a comfortable 26.5 percent.

As mentioned in my previous post [here], August marked a new financial milestone in my family.  My wife and I paid off the remaining balance on our DBS home mortgage loan.  We are officially debt free!  It is a fantastic feeling.  I can also kiss my Manulife insurance policy goodbye, which DBS had made us buy for the mortgage.  This is a good S$650 saved every year.

The average yield for October issuance of Singapore Savings Bond ("SSB") has plunged to an estimated 2.77%.  With the expected U.S. Fed interest rate cut, I doubt the SSB yield will get any higher soon.  It is time to switch investment focus back to equities.  I will be paying close attention to the local bank stocks.

The Direct School Admission for Secondary Schools ("DSA-Sec") exercise is over.  My DS (forum jargon for Dear Son) completed the group interview with a third school.  He was able to secure interviews with all three schools in his application.  I am grateful for the good fortune and the opportunity, as I have heard how his peer was rejected outright without any chance for an interview.  As one parent commented, DSA-Sec is starting to become like PSLE - equally stressful for both parent and child.

In the end, my DS was given Confirmed Offer ("CO") for one school, and placed on Wait List ("WL") for the other two schools.  Despite the CO, my DS still wants to apply for one of the WL schools first, as it has been his dream to study there (white uniform, somewhere in Bishan).  Nonetheless, I am happy his calibre was recognized by all three prominent boys' schools.

Signing off for now.  Take care!




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Monday, August 26, 2024

Silverlake Axis Voluntary Unconditional Offer


Silverlake Axis ("SLA") announced it received a voluntary unconditional offer today [here].  Existing shareholders can choose between receiving 36 Singapore cents in cash per share, or a combination of 30 Singapore cents in cash and one new redeemable preference share (RPS)  The RPS will be redeemed in five years' time at an amount of 18 Singapore cents.

The cash offer represents a 20 per cent premium over the last traded price of S$0.30.  On the other hand, the NPV of the cash and RPS combination represents a 52 per cent premium over the last traded price, based on my back-of-the-envelope calculations.

It is sad that this financial software company is going to be delisted.  I can understand the rationale for the privatisation, as SLV's share price has been languishing for years now.

I will probably take the cash offer for my SRS portfolio, but the combination of cash and RPS for my CDP portfolio.  I see no replacement counter in the near term, so I will opt for the higher return in my CDP.




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Friday, March 1, 2024

Portfolio Summary for February 2024

As of 29 February 2024

CDP

Security # shares Price S$ %
DBS 400 33.33 3.91
UOB 400 27.95 3.28
OCBC Bank 700 12.98 2.66
SGX 3,200 9.45 8.86
ST Engineering 6,900 3.98 8.04
Powermatic Data 8,500 2.95 7.35
Micro-Mechanics 18,400 1.68 9.06
Sheng Siong 19,100 1.55 8.67
TheHourGlass 19,600 1.55 8.90
VICOM Ltd 21,500 1.43 9.01
Credit Bureau Asia 14,300 0.915 3.83
HRnetGroup 21,900 0.725 4.65
Nanofilm 36,100 0.705 7.46
China Sunsine 41,800 0.39 4.78
TalkMed Group 14,500 0.375 1.59
Kimly 27,000 0.31 2.45
HC Surgical 35,500 0.29 3.02
Silverlake Axis 37,100 0.23 2.50
Portfolio Value = S$341,367
YTD Dividends Received = S$1,000
YTD SBL Fees Received = S$20

Trades
- Bought 500 shares of SGX.
- Bought 4,200 shares of Micro-Mechanics.
- Bought 22,100 shares of Silverlake Axis Limited.

SRS

Security # shares Price S$ %
DBS 100 33.33 2.64
UOB 200 27.95 4.43
SGX 1,300 9.45 9.74
ST Engineering 3,000 3.98 9.46
Micro-Mechanics 5,400 1.68 7.19
Sheng Siong 8,700 1.55 10.69
TheHourGlass 5,000 1.55 6.14
VICOM Ltd 5,500 1.43 6.23
Credit Bureau Asia 5,700 0.915 4.13
HRnetGroup 7,500 0.725 4.31
Nanofilm 12,500 0.705 6.98
China Sunsine 10,800 0.39 3.34
TalkMed Group 5,800 0.375 1.72
Kimly 5,800 0.31 1.43
HC Surgical 19,500 0.29 4.48
Silverlake Axis 6,000 0.23 1.09
NetLink NBN Trust 24,000 0.84 15.98
Portfolio Value = S$126,166

Trades
- Sold 900 shares of OCBC Bank.
- Bought 24,000 units of NetLink NBN Trust.

Singapore Savings Bonds

Security Amount (S$) Avg Yld %
GX22120S 14,000 3.47
GX23010Z 15,000 3.26
GX23110V 20,000 3.32
GX23120Z 20,000 3.40
Portfolio Value = S$69,000

Speculative Play

Security # shares Price US$
Kep Pacific Oak REIT 70,000 0.125
Portfolio Value = US$8,750

Trades
- Bought 70,000 units of Keppel Pacific Oak REIT.

Commentary:
The Lunar New Year came and went in a flash.  My family did not do many visits, as my older son fell sick on the second day.  It pains my heart to see him coughing away through the night and had to miss school for one whole week.  While staying home, I had spare time to spring clean (yes, on CNY Day 1-3) and do some reading.

The Singapore bank stocks found a second wind at the start of the month.  DBS, UOB and OCBC soared in price before retreating in mid-February.  All three banks announced record earnings and a higher final dividend.  DBS also announced a 1-for-10 bonus stock issue, Ex Date: 22 Apr 2024.  I did not manage to buy any bank share at my intended price.  Will continue to monitor for suitable opportunities.

Meanwhile, I accumulated shares in SGX, Micro-Mechanics Holdings ("MMH") and Silverlake Axis Limited ("SAL").  SGX fell out of favour with institutional investors, which caused its price to decline significantly.  MMH and SAL had reported less than stellar results, which saw their prices retrace accordingly.  Nonetheless, these companies remain profitable and I believe they will be able to grow their business over the long run.

I also executed an unscheduled trade in February.


Keppel Pacific Oak REIT ("KORE") suffered a massive 40% price plunge when the Manager announced that it will suspend distribution to unitholders till 2H2025 (see company filiing [here]).  The aim is to retain the income for recapitalization of KORE's balance sheet.  As of 31 Dec 2023, KORE has aggregate leverage of 43.2%, primarily due to lower portfolio valuation.  This is a whisker away from the 45% limit, which may make lenders unwilling to provide further financing.  The Manager has evaluated various options, including equity fund raising, divestment of properties and reduced distribution to unitholders.  All were found to be unfeasible.  Continued capex is also required to keep the properties attractive to current and prospective tenants.

I have reviewed KORE's FY2023 earning result.  Gross revenue was US$150.8M (FY22: US$148.0M), +1.9% y/y.  NPI was US$86.1M (FY22: US$84.3M), +2.2% y/y.  As of 31 Dec 2023, net assets was US$723.2M (31 Dec 2022: US$846.1M), -14.5% y/y.  NAV was US$0.69 (31 Dec 2022: US$0.81), -14.8% y/y.  KORE's current liabilities exceeded its current assets by US$67.0M, compared to US$24.3M a year before.  KORE has an uncommitted unutilised facility of US$50.0M and a committed unutilised facility of US$18.1M.  KORE should have no problem rolling over the debt with its retained income and unused facilities.

I believe the pendulum has swung too far to the downside.  KORE is still in a healthy operating mode, albeit it needs liquidity to tide over the present challenging situation facing U.S. commercial real estate.  S-Reits are not my forte, but KORE's dramatic fall in price caught my eye.

Securities Investors Association Singapore (SIAS) organized a Zoom session with KORE management.  (You can access the Powerpoint deck [here].)  The deck showed KORE has US$25M debt due 4Q2024 and US$50M due 2025.

If KORE survives through these two years and its refinancing goes through successfully, its price should recover to close the 80% gap to its NAV.  This is a rare mispricing event.  Thus, I bought 70,000 units of KORE for my account.

My analysis may well be wrong.  Just how bad is the U.S. commercial real estate situation?  The short answer is: real bad.  Bloomberg did a short video documentary about it.  You can watch it [here].  In the worst-case scenario, KORE finds itself unable to refinance its debt, and declares bankruptcy.  Should this happen, I will lose my entire investment.  However, this is only a small sum relative to my net worth.  The loss will not have any material impact to my wellbeing.  I am comfortable taking this speculative bet, in which the potential reward outweighs the risk.  (Please DYODD.)


As mentioned in my previous month's summary [here], I am revamping my SRS portfolio.  I have started selling down my existing holdings.  At the same time, I have started to accumulate NetLink NBN Trust ("NetLink").  For someone who previously avoided S-Reits, why the sudden interest now in NetLink?  Well, I find NetLink has many attractive points: a stable unitholder base; recurring earnings visibility; consistent and healthy margins; as well as a low gearing ratio of 24.3%.  With the development of new HDB residential towns like Tengah, and the government's plan to upgrade the National Broadband Network (NBN) infrastructure so as to provide faster connection speeds for families, the revenue outlook is bright for NetLink, as it is the sole entity providing the connection service and maintenance of the NBN.  It is like owning a utility company, albeit one with a 6% yield.  The vision for my SRS portfolio is to be a money stash that compounds at a moderate clip.  Investing in NetLink can help in this aspect.

April issuance of Singapore Savings Bond (SSB) is estimated to have an average yield of 3.04%.  The coupon rate is trending up again, but this is still below my requirement, hence I will not subscribe for the SSB.

At the workplace, I have just completed my annual performance evaluation with my team leader and manager.  My coworkers had told me their 2024 increment ranged between 1 and 3+ percent.  Hence, I wasn't expecting any better.  So I was pleasantly surprised when I was given a 5 percent increment in total compensation.  My actual bonus was also 15 percent higher than the target amount.  I'm glad that my contribution was given due recognition by my boss, and I'm grateful for the above average adjustment.  But it also means they have higher expectations for me this year.  I hope not to disappoint them.

My kids have just completed their Term One weighted assessments.  We can finally take a breather from the intensive revision (imagine: the parents are more worried than the kids!)  My older boy is taking his PSLE this year, hence we are concerned about his progress.  That said, as I grow older, I have realized the importance of taking care of our own mental health.  Being under constant stress can be harmful.  I try not to pack my kids' schedule, though I want my kids to take personal responsibility for their own success in life.  On various occasions, I have emphasized to my kids that I am not asking for perfect scores in their exams.  All I want them to do is to learn from their mistakes, pick themselves up when they fall, keep moving forward and "be better than yesterday".  Tenacity coupled with a growth mindset and incremental improvement can go a long way.

Until next time.  Cheers!




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Friday, February 16, 2024

Silverlake Axis 1H2024 Earning Result

Silverlake Axis Limited ("SAL") reported their 1H2024 earning result yesterday [here].  Here is a quick dive into the numbers:

Numbers in RM million unless stated otherwise.
Six Months Ending 31 Dec 2023 31 Dec 2022 % Change
Revenue 397.37 392.28 1.3
Gross Profit 220.15 229.39 (4.0)
Net Profit 89.32 99.71 (10.4)
EPS (in sen) 3.53 3.96 (10.9)

Gross profit margin slid to 55.4% (1H23: 58.5%), net profit margin dropped to 22.5% (25.4%).  Recurring revenue, which makes up 75% of total revenue (from maintenance and enhancement services, insurance ecosystem transactions and services, and retail transactions processing) grew 7% to RM298.8M.  Non-recurring revenue, which makes up the rest (from software licensing, software project services (professional services) and sale of system software and hardware products), came in 14% lower at RM114.2M.  The proportion of revenue from higher margin business segment such as software licensing, was lower in 1H2024 as compared to the same period last year.  Total expenses was 11% higher y/y at RM119.5M.  SAL attributed the increase to annual salary increment post COVID-19, new headcounts and retirement gratuity paid to key management personnel.  SAL indicated approximately RM240M worth of deals was closed in 1H2024.  Pipeline remains robust with total potential deals of about RM1.4B, of which in the immediate term, approximately RM150M are in imminent stages of closure.  No dividend was declared for 1H2024.

My Thoughts
In its commentary, SAL said that core replacement and upgrading projects have become less of a priority for their financial institutional customer base.  I am glad the margins remain healthy despite the challenging environment.  SAL is trading close to its average 5-year P/E, which makes it neither expensive nor cheap.  I took a bite earlier this month, and will refrain from adding more at this point.  Will monitor the company's progress as it navigates through the second half of the year.



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Thursday, June 30, 2022

Portfolio Summary for June 2022

As of 30 June 2022

CDP

Security# sharesPrice S$%
DBS30029.683.04
UOB30026.252.69
OCBC Bank70011.392.72
SGX1,2009.463.88
iFast5,7004.148.06
SATS3,9003.905.19
ST Engineering4,1004.085.71
Micro-Mechanics8,4002.908.32
Powermatic Data8,5002.687.78
TheHourGlass5,0002.323.96
Vicom11,8002.028.14
Sheng Siong13,0001.526.75
ComfortDelGro11,2001.405.36
Genting Singapore11,7000.722.88
HRnetGroup21,9000.7755.80
HC Surgical35,5000.4956.00
China Sunsine41,8000.446.28
TalkMed Group14,5000.3851.91
Kimly27,0000.383.50
Silverlake Axis15,0000.3952.02
Portfolio Market Value = $292,785

Trade Actions
- Bought 300 shares of UOB.
- Bought 500 shares of iFast Corp.
- Bought 500 shares of Micro-Mechanics Holdings.
- Bought 11,800 shares of Vicom.
- Bought 3,500 shares of Powermatic Data Systems.
- Bought 14,500 shares of TalkMed Group.
- Sold 10,600 shares of Silverlake Axis.

SRS

Security# sharesPrice S$%
OCBC Bank90011.398.43
SGX1,3009.4610.12
iFast2,1004.147.15
SATS2,2003.907.06
ST Engineering3,0004.0810.07
Micro-Mechanics3,1002.907.40
Powermatic Data3,4002.687.50
Vicom4,7002.027.81
Sheng Siong8,7001.5210.88
ComfortDelGro6,9001.407.95
HC Surgical19,5000.4957.94
China Sunsine10,8000.443.91
TalkMed Group5,8000.3851.84
Silverlake Axis6,0000.3951.95
Portfolio Market Value = $121,551

Trade Actions
- Bought 3,400 shares of Powermatic Data Systems.
- Bought 4,700 shares of Vicom.
- Bought 2,100 shares of TalkMed Group.
- Sold 9,100 shares of Silverlake Axis.

Commentary:
The Straits Times Index (STI) has completely eliminated its year-to-date gain. Although the local market is still far from bear territory, stock prices have started to slide, similar to other markets.

Worry of inflation has finally crept into Singaporeans' mind, according to separate surveys by DBS [here] and YouGov [here]. The government has taken preemptive action by announcing a surprise S$1.5b budget to help families and businesses tide through this challenging period [news].

I went on a spending spree in June. Fine-tuned my positions in iFast Corp, Micro-Mechanics Holdings and Powermatic Data Systems as their prices retreated.

I also built a stake in two new counters - UOB and Vicom. Banks are big beneficiaries of interest rate hikes, although there is the concern that a recession may bump up nonperforming loans. UOB's acquisition of Citibank's consumer assets in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam provides hope that the bank now has a meaningful avenue to expand its business in ASEAN [news]. Vicom is a relatively well-known vehicle inspection company in Singapore. I like the consistency in Vicom's double-digit ROE and margins.

I have managed to add TalkMed Group to my CDP portfolio too. I further reduced my position in Silverlake Axis as its price rallied near month end.

I am gradually tilting my portfolios towards more liquid holdings. Current cash stands at 30% of total portfolio value. I hope to scoop up more shares as they approach my preferred entry level.

July marks the beginning of Q3, which also heralds the start of the earnings reporting season. As investors buy and sell based on actual results versus estimates, volatility is going to be high. A U.S. Fed interest rate hike of 75 bps in July is almost a given. Any economic data that paints a better picture is likely to spark a relief rally. Overall, a wild ride is expected.




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Wednesday, March 31, 2021

Portfolio Summary for March 2021

As of 31 March 2021

CDP

Security# sharesPrice S$%
DBS70028.797.69
OCBC Bank1,50011.756.72
SGX1,2009.974.56
SATS3,9004.356.47
ST Engineering4,1003.896.08
CapitaLand5,4003.767.74
Singtel6,1002.445.68
Powermatic Data5,0002.574.90
Micro-Mechanics1,3003.191.58
ComfortDelGro7,9001.715.15
Sheng Siong6,4001.543.76
Genting Singapore11,7000.924.11
TheHourGlass15,4000.9455.55
HRnetGroup21,9000.675.60
China Sunsine31,0000.5256.21
HC Surgical35,5000.4355.89
Nam Lee Metal28,2000.3253.50
Silverlake Axis60,8000.2455.68
Kimly27,0000.3053.14
Portfolio Value = $262,210

Trade Actions
- Bought 20,800 shares of Silverlake Axis.

SRS

Security# sharesPrice S$%
OCBC Bank90011.7515.91
SGX1,3009.9719.50
SATS2,2004.3514.40
ST Engineering1,7003.899.95
Singtel2,0002.447.34
Sheng Siong8,7001.5420.15
HC Surgical19,5000.43512.76
Portfolio Value = $66,480

Trade Actions
- None

Commentary:
This will be a short entry, because I did not do much trading. I only bought additional shares of Silverlake Axis for my CDP portfolio as the price floated down. Most of the time, I am just monitoring the stocks while sitting pat on my idle cash. The market seemed to have priced in a rosier future six months down the road. No doubt the multi-ministry COVID-19 Task Force's decision to ease workplace restrictions and the ongoing vaccination regime around the developed world is giving hope to investors that the worst is behind us. However, I choose to remain cautious and disciplined - only pull the trigger when the stock price is within my target range.




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Saturday, October 31, 2020

Portfolio Summary for October 2020

As of 31 October 2020

CDP

Security# sharesPrice S$%
DBS70020.357.54
OCBC Bank1,5008.426.69
SGX1,2008.665.50
SATS3,9002.986.15
ST Engineering4,1003.497.57
CapitaLand5,4002.577.35
Singtel6,1002.036.55
Powermatic Data2,8002.563.79
Micro-Mechanics1,3002.661.83
ComfortDelGro7,9001.355.65
Genting Singapore11,7000.6453.99
TheHourGlass15,4000.705.71
HRnetGroup21,9000.475.45
China Sunsine31,0000.3956.48
HC Surgical35,5000.3256.11
Nam Lee Metal28,2000.314.63
Silverlake Axis40,0000.255.29
Kimly27,0000.263.72
Portfolio Value = $188,914

Trade Actions
- Bought 16,400 shares of HC Surgical Specialists.
- Bought 19,200 shares of Silverlake Axis.

SRS

Security# sharesPrice S$%
OCBC Bank9008.4212.13
SGX1,3008.6618.02
SATS2,2002.9810.49
ST Engineering1,7003.499.50
Singtel2,0002.036.50
CapitaMall Trust3,6001.739.97
Sheng Siong8,7001.6723.25
HC Surgical19,5000.3259.97
Portfolio Value = $62,480

Trade Actions
- None

Commentary:
The local stock market ended the month on a bloody note. A Bloomberg article remarked Singapore had overtaken Thailand to become Asia's worst stock market [news]. The COVID-19 virus is still on a rampage through Europe and the pending U.S. Presidential Election gave investors pause in chasing the momentum.

On my watchlist, both Singtel and CapitaLand hit their 52-week low. I would understand the bearish thesis on Singtel - there is the intense telco competition in several countries that the company and its affliates operate in (Singapore, India and Australia). Moreover, there is the massive 5G expenditure in the coming years, which leads some to believe Singtel will have to cut its dividend further to conserve cash. However, I do not understand why the market hammered CapitaLand too. CapitaMall Trust and CapitaCommercial Trust recently completed their merger, forming a new entity. Its various business divisions seem to be showing new shoots of recovery. Perhaps there is something that I am missing out.

In October, I decided to add stakes in HC Surgical Specialists and SilverLake Axis. There is no special reason, other than the stocks came within my targeted price range.

Two companies on my watchlist, Micro-Mechanics and Sheng Siong reported strong profit growth. However, at their current prices, I deem the stocks to be slightly too expensive for my liking. I will only consider them if and when they come within my targeted price range.

Only two months till we end Year 2020. Looking back 12 months ago, it is out of anyone's expectations that a virus will wreck havoc on the human race and artificially induce a global recession. We can only hope that the situation will remain under control, and that the introduction of a vaccine next year will help to curb the spread of the pandemic further.




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Wednesday, July 1, 2020

Portfolio Summary for June 2020

As of 30 June 2020

CDP

Security# sharesPrice S$%
DBS40020.805.82
OCBC Bank1,5009.009.44
SGX1,2008.347.00
SATS3,9002.867.80
ST Engineering4,1003.309.46
CapitaLand3,5002.927.15
Singtel4,0002.466.88
Powermatic Data2,8002.484.86
Micro-Mechanics1,3001.751.59
ComfortDelGro7,9001.458.01
Genting Singapore11,7000.766.22
Old Chang Kee4,7000.7252.38
TheHourGlass3,0000.691.45
HRnetGroup11,6000.4954.02
HC Surgical19,1000.314.14
Nam Lee Metal28,2000.316.11
Silverlake Axis20,8000.2353.42
Kimly27,0000.2254.25
Portfolio Value = $142,984

Trade Actions
- Added 1,200 shares of Singapore Exchange.
- Added 1,300 shares of Micro-Mechanics Holdings.
- Added 1,800 shares of CapitaLand.
- Added 3,000 shares of The Hour Glass Ltd.
- Added 20,800 shares of Silverlake Axis.
- Sold 300 shares of Old Chang Kee.

SRS

Security# sharesPrice S$%
OCBC Bank9009.0012.54
SGX1,3008.3416.78
SATS2,2002.869.74
ST Engineering1,7003.308.68
Singtel2,0002.467.61
CapitaCommercial Trust5,0001.6913.08
Sheng Siong8,7001.6522.22
HC Surgical19,5000.319.36
Portfolio Value = $64,614

Trade Actions
- None

Commentary:


I used the recent market pullbacks to add some stocks to my CDP portfolio.

SGX - The selling abated around $8, which is a 23% drop from its high. I feel SGX still has the potential to earn a decent, albeit lower revenue. (It's a duopoly with HKSE in derivative trading within the Asian region.) SGX initiated stock buyback during end June, which could lend some near-term support. The exchange had taken its first baby step to replenish its derivatives offering, with the introduction of the SGX FTSE Taiwan Index Future [announcement]. SGX had also announced acquisition of the remaining 80% ownership in BidFX, a cloud-based FX trading platform for institutional investors [announcement]. This will become another revenue source over the long term. SGX is set to report its FY2020 results on 30 July.

Micro-Mechanics Holdings - This company popped up on my screener some months back. Its fortune is tied to the notoriously cyclical semiconductor industry, similar to other broker recommended stocks like AEM, Frencken and UMS. Balance sheet and margins look healthy, even though revenue and profit is seasonal. In 2019, the semiconductor industry suffered its worst year in almost two decades [article]. (I know it personally because my wife was forced to clear leave.) But if the predictions of the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization were to come true, annual global chip sales should increase 5.9% in 2020 and 6.3% in 2021. This bodes well for Micro-Mechanics.

CapitaLand - I'd be the first to admit: this company has a poor ROE (10%), although management is working to improve it. I like the diversity in its revenue, both in geography and sector. (CapitaLand sells properties, leases them and manages private equity funds & REITs to own them.) Dividend yield (above 4%) is attractive at current price. The company has offered scrip election for its latest dividend [announcement], but I won't be going for it because I dislike holding odd number of shares in my portfolio.

The Hour Glass - THG turned in a pretty good set of FY2020 results [announcement]. Total revenue was $754.6m (up 4% y/y). Net profit was $77.5m (up 9% y/y). Only disappointment is the 2 cents annual dividend (Ex Date TBA), compared to 3 cents last year. The luxury industry had been hammered by the Circuit Breaker, but given THG's sizeable cash hoard of $183.1m (which covers its debt and payables comfortably), it should be able to weather through. Gross margin is an admirable 28.8%, and I believe their affluent customers' disposable income is hardly impacted by COVID-19. As The Business Times columnist Ben Paul remarked, "What better way to spend money earmarked for a cancelled trip to Europe than by picking up another luxury timepiece?" [article]

Silverlake Axis - Brian from 3foreverfinancialfreedom.com wrote a detailed article [here] on this company. The stock suffered from a short seller's report in Aug 2015 and it has been on a downtrend since. Nonetheless, the company is looking attractive at current price, with a FY2019 ROE of 41% and margins above 30%. Software is indeed a lucrative business (just ask my boss). Barring any adverse development, this company should be able to sustain its dividend.

Old Chang Kee - I've put up my position for sale, but the liquidity is pathetic. I was initially attracted to its high GPM and inflation-resistant pricing power. But increasingly, I'm getting bearish as the Circuit Breaker shut their eateries, even though the company commented offsite bento meal deliveries should help to minimize the loss in revenue [announcement]. Regardless, I expect their 1H 2020 result to be devastated and it may take some time for the revenue to recover. Will offload into the rally.




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