Portfolio Summary for August 2026

As of 31 August 2026

CDP

Security	# shares	Price S$	%
DBS	440	77.40	3.97
UOB	400	41.56	1.94
OCBC Bank	700	31.52	2.58
SGX	3,200	25.50	9.52
ST Engineering	6,900	10.79	8.69
Azeus	5,600	9.63	6.29
Powermatic Data	13,800	3.07	4.94
Sheng Siong	19,100	3.22	7.18
Micro-Mechanics	18,400	2.75	5.91
TheHourGlass	19,600	2.80	6.41
UMS	39,000	2.66	12.11
VICOM Ltd	21,500	1.85	4.64
Nanofilm	36,100	0.94	3.96
Credit Bureau Asia	39,200	1.09	4.99
Info-Tech	41,400	0.87	4.20
Riverstone	40,500	0.795	3.76
HRnetGroup	21,900	0.725	1.85
China Sunsine	41,800	0.66	3.22
Kimly	27,000	0.41	1.29
HC Surgical	35,500	0.345	1.43
Audience Analytics	38,900	0.245	1.11

Portfolio Value = S$856,777
YTD Dividends Received = S$18,735
YTD SBL Fees Received = S$2,220

Trades
None

SRS

Security	# shares	Price S$	%
Micro-Mechanics	5,400	2.75	9.39
TheHourGlass	5,000	2.80	8.86
Nanofilm	12,500	0.94	7.43
NetLink NBN Trust	108,000	0.975	66.62
HRnetGroup	7,500	0.725	3.44
HC Surgical	19,500	0.345	4.26

Portfolio Value = S$158,065

Trades
None

Singapore Savings Bonds

Security	Amount	Coupon Now
GX22120S	S$14,000	3.58%
GX23010Z	S$15,000	3.25%
GX23110V	S$20,000	3.21%
GX23120Z	S$20,000	3.30%
GX24060A	S$20,000	3.26%
GX24070S	S$20,000	3.26%
GX24080W	S$20,000	3.19%

Portfolio Value = S$129,000
YTD Coupons Received = S$2,983

Speculative Play

Security	# shares	Price US$
KORE US REIT	70,000	0.171

Portfolio Value = US$11,970
YTD Dividends Received = S$223

Trades
None


Commentary:

August was a happy month for me. We celebrated three birthdays in the family. Not so much for investors.

Taking a look at the benachmarks, the U.S. S&P 500 Index closed up 2.6 percent MoM. The tech-heavy NASADAQ 100 Index finished higher 4.2 percent MoM. The Singapore Straits Times Index climbed 2.3 percent MoM, while the iEdge Singapore Next 50 Index ended down 0.9 percent MoM.

All three local banks DBS, UOB and OCBC reported stellar 2026 Q2 results. DBS net profit rose 9 percent YoY to S$3.08 billion. An one-off 15 Singapore cents special dividend was paid out, on top of a 66 Singapore cents interim dividend. UOB net profit rose 10 percent YoY to S$1.48 billion. A 88 Singapore cents interim dividend was paid out. Lastly, OCBC net profit rose 22 percent YoY to S$2.22 billion. A 47 Singapore cents interim dividend was paid out. All three banks were helped by booming demand for wealth management products, even though net interest margin was compressed.

As stocks continued to scale new peaks, I did not execute any trade in the month. When prices vastly exceed prudent valuations, it is NOT the right time to plow in hard-earned savings. Institutional investors are getting wary about the giantic sums poured into building the AI infrastructure. Yet, no one wants to be seen as the fool that pulled out of the market too early.

Mixed economic signals and the ongoing Hormuz spat did not help. The U.S. Federal Reserve chose to stay put on interest rate in July. Probability of a hike in September is around 65 percent, according to CME FedWatch. There is no clear impetus for the market to head in either direction.

Signing off for now. Take care, my friends!

---

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Portfolio Summary for February 2026

As of 28 February 2026

CDP

Security	# shares	Price S$	%
DBS	440	57.12	3.70
UOB	400	36.97	2.18
OCBC Bank	700	21.43	2.21
SGX	3,200	18.20	8.58
ST Engineering	6,900	9.97	10.14
Powermatic Data	13,800	3.33	6.77
Sheng Siong	19,100	2.63	7.40
TheHourGlass	19,600	2.46	7.11
Micro-Mechanics	18,400	1.98	5.37
VICOM Ltd	21,500	1.77	5.61
UMS	39,000	1.45	8.33
Credit Bureau Asia	30,100	1.27	5.63
Info-Tech	41,400	1.12	6.83
Riverstone	40,500	0.77	4.60
China Sunsine	41,800	0.76	4.68
HRnetGroup	21,900	0.75	2.42
Nanofilm	36,100	0.65	3.46
Kimly	27,000	0.40	1.59
HC Surgical	35,500	0.355	1.86
Audience Analytics	38,900	0.265	1.52

Portfolio Value = S$678,544
YTD Dividends Received = S$1,174
YTD SBL Fees Received = S$73

Trades
None

SRS

Security	# shares	Price S$	%
TheHourGlass	5,000	2.46	8.17
Micro-Mechanics	5,400	1.98	7.10
NetLink NBN Trust	108,000	0.99	71.00
HRnetGroup	7,500	0.75	3.74
Nanofilm	12,500	0.65	5.40
HC Surgical	19,500	0.355	4.60

Portfolio Value = S$150,585

Trades
None

Singapore Savings Bonds

Security	Amount	Coupon Now
GX22120S	S$14,000	3.58%
GX23010Z	S$15,000	3.25%
GX23110V	S$20,000	3.21%
GX23120Z	S$20,000	3.30%
GX24060A	S$20,000	3.26%
GX24070S	S$20,000	3.26%
GX24080W	S$20,000	3.19%

Portfolio Value = S$129,000
YTD Coupons Received = S$866

Speculative Play

Security	# shares	Price US$
KORE US REIT	70,000	0.215

Portfolio Value = US$15,050

Trades
None


Commentary:

With the passing of Lunar New Year, the festive spirit is gone and life has kicked into full gear.

A surprising twist occurred in February as the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump's use of tariffs, rendering it illegal [news].  But Trump's team immediately jumped at another legislation and raised the global duty on imports into the United States to 15 percent the next day [news].  It is clear that Trump is not giving up without a fight.

After the stellar climb last year, the markets are taking a breather and heading lower.  The S&P 500 Index closed 0.87 percent lower MoM.  The tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 Index faced heavy selloff due to AI fears and slumped 2.32 percent MoM.  Meanwhile, the local Straits Times Index bucked the trend and closed 1.83 percent higher MoM.

The local banks handed in a mixed report card for Q4 2025.

DBS Group total income dropped 3.2 percent YoY to S$5.33 billion; net income, excluding one-time items, dropped 10 percent YoY to S$2.36 billion.  A final dividend of S$0.81 per share was declared, bringing the total dividend for the full year to S$3.06 per share.

UOB total income dropped 5.0 percent YoY to S$3.29 billion; net income dropped 7.4 percent YoY to S$1.41 billion.  A final dividend of S$0.71 per share was declared, bringing the total dividend for the full year to S$1.56 per share.

OCBC Bank total income rose 5.9 percent YoY to S$3.62 billion; net income rose 3.4 percent to S$1.75 billion. A final dividend of S$0.42 per share was declared, as well as a special dividend of S$0.16 per share.  This brings the total dividend for the full year to S$0.99 per share.

A new counter in my CDP portfolio, Info-Tech turned in a pretty good set of FY2025 result.  Total revenue rose 29 percent YoY to S$56.5 million.  Adjusted profit after tax rose 46 percent YoY to S$18.0 million.  A final dividend of S$0.0195 per share was declared, bringing the total dividend for the full year to S$0.035 per share.

The sole counter in my Speculative Playbook, KORE US REIT has finally declared a distribution of 0.25 US Cents per unit after a hiatus of two years.  The market reaction has been muted, much to my dismay.  I guess Trump's tariffs have thrown a spanner in the works, clouding the future of the U.S. economy, which in turn makes the prospect of U.S. real estate murky.  I am contemplating whether to sell off my holding at the current prevailing price, or hold on for better return when the storm clears.  No quick decision on this one.

As usual, I did not trade in February.  Markets are neither expensive nor cheap.  Saving up my capital for better opportunities down the road.

At work, I adjusted into my new role which involves collaborating with colleagues from other departments to solve clients' complex Production issues as well as to reply prospective clients' Request for Proposal.  Since it is a new job posting with no precedence, Management has only provided very general guidelines of the KPIs.  Annual performance evaluation will likely remain subjective among the ten of us in this role globally, depending on how much value we contribute to the firm.

At home, my two boys are tackling their Term Paper 1.  I have reminded them to stay on top of their studies and fortify their knowledge through assessment book practices.  I hope they have taken my nagging to heart.

Signing off for now.  Take care, my friends!

---

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Portfolio Summary for November 2025

As of 30 November 2025

CDP

Security	# shares	Price S$	%
DBS	440	54.20	4.08
UOB	400	33.98	2.33
OCBC Bank	700	18.50	2.22
SGX	3,200	16.86	9.24
ST Engineering	6,900	8.30	9.81
Powermatic Data	13,800	3.00	7.09
TheHourGlass	19,600	2.25	7.55
Sheng Siong	19,100	2.72	8.90
Micro-Mechanics	18,400	1.65	5.20
VICOM Ltd	21,500	1.62	5.96
UMS	31,200	1.39	7.43
Credit Bureau Asia	30,100	1.27	6.55
Riverstone	40,500	0.825	5.72
Nanofilm	36,100	0.655	4.05
HRnetGroup	21,900	0.735	2.76
China Sunsine	41,800	0.785	5.62
Kimly	27,000	0.385	1.78
HC Surgical	35,500	0.34	2.07
Audience Analytics	38,900	0.25	1.67

Portfolio Value = S$584,007
YTD Dividends Received = S$17,516
YTD SBL Fees Received = S$580

Trades
None

SRS

Security	# shares	Price S$	%
TheHourGlass	5,000	2.25	7.77
Micro-Mechanics	5,400	1.65	6.16
Nanofilm	12,500	0.655	5.66
HRnetGroup	7,500	0.735	3.81
HC Surgical	19,500	0.34	4.58
NetLink NBN Trust	108,000	0.965	72.02

Portfolio Value = S$144,710

Trades
None

Singapore Savings Bonds

Security	Amount	Coupon Now
GX22120S	S$14,000	3.58%
GX23010Z	S$15,000	2.95%
GX23110V	S$20,000	3.21%
GX23120Z	S$20,000	3.30%
GX24060A	S$20,000	3.26%
GX24070S	S$20,000	3.26%
GX24080W	S$20,000	3.19%

Portfolio Value = S$129,000
YTD Coupons Received = S$3,260

Speculative Play

Security	# shares	Price US$
Kep Pacific Oak REIT	70,000	0.24/td>

Portfolio Value = US$16,800

Trades
None


Commentary:

Did you grab any good offer on Black Friday?

Alas, unlike the exciting deals on Shopee, I did not find any tantalising stock buy.  As the markets traded rangebound, I stayed on the sidelines and focused on my work instead.  A quick look at the indices - the S&P 500 Index closed flat in November, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 Index sank 1.6 percent for the month.  Our local Straits Times Index bucked the trend and climbed 2.2 percent over the same period.

JPMorgan recently put out a note, saying that DBS could get “unjustifiably expensive”, and UOB may face volatility over the next six months [news].  At a current forward P/E of 13.55 compared to the 5-year average P/E of around 10, DBS price is indeed on the high side.  Caveat emptor is the word of the day if you are looking to load up on the local bank stocks.

After some back-and-forth between the Democrats and Republicans, U.S. President Trump signed the latest spending bill, finally ending the longest U.S. government shutdown in history.  Debate is ongoing whether the Fed will cut interest rate during its last meeting for the year on 9-10 December.  Punters believe there is a high 86 percent chance of doing so, according to CME's FedWatch.

On the home front, both of my kids have ended their academic year and are enjoying a well-deserved break from school.  That said, my wife and I still insist on them finishing up their assessment books.  The six-week holiday does not imply forgoing their revision.  I want my kids to keep their knowledge sharp, so that they can start next year on a good footing.

Additionally, I try to pack activities for my two boys, so that they will not idle their time away.  My older boy still has his Sunday fencing lesson with his coach at the club.  Additionally, he will make his debut at the National Age Group 2025 (chess competition) in December, organised by the Singapore Chess Federation.  I hope my boy gets a good FIDE rating for an amateur.  Lastly, I have signed him up for a weeklong cooking class for teens, organised by Camp Asia.  I hope he learns some decent kitchen skills, which will come in handy when my wife and I are busy at work.

Meanwhile, my younger boy is training for the FIRST Lego League Singapore (robotics competition), which is held in March 2026.  I have also signed him up for a DSA Preparatory Programme, in which the coach will guide my boy to prepare his portfolio, as well as train him in handling the DSA interview competently.  Our goal is to secure a coveted spot in HCI, where his older brother is currently studying.  Finally, I enrolled my younger boy in a crash course for Mandarin public speaking, so as to brush up his oral skills for the PSLE next year.

Speaking of PSLE, the 2025 result was announced last Tuesday.  I read several heart-breaking recounts by parents who felt guilty that they had not prepared their kids well for the examinations.  There were also stories about children crying after receiving their results, as they scored worse than expected.  Selecting the six choices for secondary school posting has become a national sport of strategic positioning, judging from the hundreds of Facebook posts from parents seeking validation on their list of secondary school choices for their kids.  The stress is intense and real.

Erm, enough of the sombre stuff.

On a lighter note, we are one month to the end of the year.  December is my favourite month, when the festive spirit is in the air, and my clients & bosses start to clear their annual leave.  Work should be lighter in the office (I hope).  Looking back to the first eleven months, I am grateful that 2025 has been relatively smooth for me, save for a bout of illness that had me down in the dumps, and the usual work stress that comes from serving a demanding Enterprise Client.  All in all, no complaint for how things have turned out.

Signing off for now.  Here's wishing my friends an early Merry Christmas and a wonderful start to the New Year!

---

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Portfolio Summary for October 2025

As of 31 October 2025

CDP

Security	# shares	Price S$	%
DBS	440	53.93	4.07
UOB	400	34.67	2.38
OCBC Bank	700	17.03	2.05
SGX	3,200	16.93	9.30
ST Engineering	6,900	8.49	10.05
Powermatic Data	13,800	3.11	7.37
TheHourGlass	19,600	2.10	7.06
Sheng Siong	19,100	2.32	7.61
Micro-Mechanics	18,400	1.78	5.62
VICOM Ltd	21,500	1.59	5.87
UMS	31,200	1.48	7.93
Credit Bureau Asia	30,100	1.26	6.51
Riverstone	40,500	0.90	6.26
Nanofilm	36,100	0.695	4.31
HRnetGroup	21,900	0.74	2.78
China Sunsine	41,800	0.735	5.27
Kimly	27,000	0.395	1.83
HC Surgical	35,500	0.34	2.07
Audience Analytics	38,900	0.25	1.67

Portfolio Value = S$582,633
YTD Dividends Received = S$14,491
YTD SBL Fees Received = S$541

Trades
- Bought 38,900 shares of Audience Analytics.

SRS

Security	# shares	Price S$	%
TheHourGlass	5,000	2.10	7.15
Micro-Mechanics	5,400	1.78	6.55
Nanofilm	12,500	0.695	5.92
HRnetGroup	7,500	0.74	3.78
HC Surgical	19,500	0.34	4.52
NetLink NBN Trust	108,000	0.98	72.09

Portfolio Value = S$146,820

Trades
None

Singapore Savings Bonds

Security	Amount	Coupon Now
GX22120S	S$14,000	3.28%
GX23010Z	S$15,000	2.95%
GX23110V	S$20,000	3.21%
GX23120Z	S$20,000	3.30%
GX24060A	S$20,000	3.26%
GX24070S	S$20,000	3.26%
GX24080W	S$20,000	3.19%

Portfolio Value = S$129,000
YTD Coupons Received = S$2,939

Speculative Play

Security	# shares	Price US$
Kep Pacific Oak REIT	70,000	0.23

Portfolio Value = US$16,100

Trades
None


Commentary:

Hiya peeps, hope you enjoyed a fun Halloween!

Prices of precious metals took an interesting development in October.  Gold shot past a historic high of US$4,300 before doing a sharp reversal down below US$4,000 near month end.  Silver followed a similar trajectory, hitting a peak near US$54.00 before retreating to US$48.55.

1 Year Gold Price in US Dollars per Ounce (Source: goldprice.org)

1 Year Silver Price in US Dollars per Ounce (Source: silverprice.org)

We can attribute the run-up to classic speculative fervour.  Interestingly, an expert quipped this is just a minor correction before gold resumes its spectacular climb.  Central banks are said to be loading up on the shiny metal, having lost confidence in the safe haven US Dollar and are diversifying away from holding the greenback.

Personally, I do not hold gold.  Neither do I believe in buying gold as an inflation hedge.  Gold "has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative", as Warren Buffett once wrote in the 2011 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter.  I agree.  I would prefer to buy shares in consistently profitable companies instead.

Which was what I did in October.  I initiated a new position in exhibitions and media company Audience Analytics Limited by purchasing 38,900 shares for my CDP portfolio.  While the company reported dismal 2025 H1 earnings, this looked to be a seasonal phenomenon.  Based on the last few years' results, their revenue growth was steady and the firm had been in the black, even through the COVID-19 pandemic.  With a strong cash position and minimal debt, I am looking for better performance down the road.  Will know the verdict in time to come.

Speaking of time to come, local lender DBS recently released a report titled "Singapore 2040" (you can find it here).  One of the bold predictions in the report is that the Singapore Dollar has the potential to hit parity with the US Dollar by 2040.

1 SGD = 1 USD.  You serious, bro?

With a fifteen-year horizon, anything can happen.  Pundits are already having difficulty projecting where interest rates may end this year, let alone forecasting something more than a decade into the future.  Lest you get starry-eyed and plonk down retirement cash to bet on Singapore's next red-hot real estate, do take the report with a pinch of salt.  Crystal ball gazers are seldom right on major financial events.

Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.

- Warren Buffett

Switching focus to home, my older boy in Secondary One at HCI has already completed his End-of-Year (EOY) Examinations and is currently enjoying his term break.  His grades are average among his peers, with a Mean Subject Grade of 1.57.  One fortunate outcome is that he was selected to be a student councillor, which is one of his 2025 goals.  A satisfactory ending, I guess.

Meanwhile, my younger boy in Primary Five at AMKP has finished his EOY Exams too.  He scored an Achievement Level of 7P (Pass for Higher Chinese).  Honestly, I wish it was better.  We are targeting to participate in the Direct School Admission for Secondary Schools (DSA-Sec) next year.  I hope the schools - particularly his dream school HCI - will give him a chance for an interview, as I have seen DSA applicants being rejected outright without even a face-to-face meetup.  This is due to high demand for the limited DSA slots in those schools.

We are down to the last two months of 2025.  As my family is not travelling abroad, I have ample leave days to clear, so I'm taking a day off each week till the year ends.  Loving this four-day work week routine!

Until next time!

---

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Portfolio Summary for March 2024

As of 31 March 2024

CDP

Security	# shares	Price S$	%
DBS	400	36.03	4.20
UOB	400	29.31	3.42
OCBC Bank	700	13.49	2.75
SGX	3,200	9.21	8.58
ST Engineering	6,900	4.02	8.08
Powermatic Data	8,500	3.00	7.43
Micro-Mechanics	18,400	1.37	7.34
Sheng Siong	19,100	1.53	8.51
TheHourGlass	19,600	1.60	9.13
VICOM Ltd	21,500	1.39	8.71
Credit Bureau Asia	14,300	0.915	3.81
HRnetGroup	21,900	0.725	4.63
Nanofilm	36,100	0.715	7.52
China Sunsine	41,800	0.395	4.81
TalkMed Group	34,500	0.36	3.62
Kimly	27,000	0.305	2.40
HC Surgical	35,500	0.26	2.69
Silverlake Axis	37,100	0.22	2.38

Portfolio Value = S$343,297
YTD Dividends Received = S$1,249
YTD SBL Fees Received = S$27

Trades
- Bought 20,000 shares of TalkMed Group.

SRS

Security	# shares	Price S$	%
UOB	200	29.31	5.39
SGX	1,300	9.21	11.00
Micro-Mechanics	5,400	1.37	6.80
Sheng Siong	8,700	1.53	12.23
TheHourGlass	5,000	1.60	7.35
VICOM Ltd	5,500	1.39	7.03
Credit Bureau Asia	5,700	0.915	4.79
HRnetGroup	7,500	0.725	5.00
Nanofilm	12,500	0.715	8.21
China Sunsine	10,800	0.395	3.92
TalkMed Group	5,800	0.36	1.92
Kimly	5,800	0.305	1.63
HC Surgical	19,500	0.26	4.66
Silverlake Axis	6,000	0.22	1.21
NetLink NBN Trust	24,000	0.855	18.86

Portfolio Value = S$108,813

Trades
- Sold 100 shares of DBS.
- Sold 3,000 shares of ST Engineering.

Singapore Savings Bonds

Security	Amount (S$)	Avg Yld %
GX22120S	14,000	3.47
GX23010Z	15,000	3.26
GX23110V	20,000	3.32
GX23120Z	20,000	3.40

Portfolio Value = S$69,000

Speculative Play

Security	# shares	Price US$
Kep Pacific Oak REIT	70,000	0.152

Portfolio Value = US$10,640

Trades
None


Commentary:

Time flies.  We have come to the end of the first calendar quarter.  The local bank stocks resumed the momentum and hit higher highs without taking a breather.  I could only sit on my hands and wait patiently for retracement, which I am pretty sure will come once the U.S. Fed cuts rates.

I took another nibble of TalkMed Group.  I am also monitoring Micro-Mechanics Holdings as investors continued to be bearish on the company's near-term prospects.

As planned, I whittled down positions in my SRS portfolio, selling DBS and ST Engineering as they hit yearly highs.  My eventual goal is to hold only one (or two) tickers in my SRS portfolio.

During March, I topped up my SRS account with the full cash amount eligible ($15.3k).  The main reason is to earn relief on my income tax.  Another reason is that my employer does a 50% matching contribution up to $5.7k.  The contribution goes separately into my company pension account, which is currently vested in an OCBC money-market fund.  The money is eligible for withdrawal only when I resign or retire.

Speaking of income tax, I recently checked my YA2024 filing on the IRAS portal.  On seeing the amount payable, my first thought was, "Sigh. There goes my performance bonus."  Well, it is actually a good thing to be able to pay income tax.  It means you are earning a comfortable amount of money for a living.  Nonetheless, I'd recommend one to be conversant with all of the tax reliefs available.  Not paying more tax than necessary is a prudent measure.

The average yield on May 2024 issuance of Singapore Savings Bond is estimated to be 3.06%.  Again, this is lower than my requirement, so I won't be parking any money there.

Earnings release season is coming up.  With sticky inflation and the central banks not in a hurry to ease interest rates, financing cost is likely to remain high for leveraged entities.  That said, the economy seems to be going strong, so companies continue to do brisk business and bring in revenue.  The stock market rally still has legs.  But one can never know.  Keeping my powder dry to pounce on opportunities as they arise.

I had just watched ChannelNewsAsia's latest documentary, "Regardless of Grades".  (You can find it [here].)  It talks about the Primary School Leaving Examination (PSLE) and the impact it has on our children.  It is no surprise that a field experiment found parental expectations to contribute the most stress in the P5/P6 kids.  I can relate to the experience.  My older boy is taking his PSLE this year.  My wife and I are concerned about his studies, particularly his Higher Chinese.  We have been sitting down with him every night to go through his assessment practices, getting him to understand the Chinese words and meaning behind each sentence in the passage.  I hope our labour will bear fruit, at least to push up his Chinese Achievement Level score.

On a separate note, my wife and I recently observed a thinning patch in the forehead of my younger boy.  At first, we thought it was a medical infection and we brought our 10-year-old to consult the family physician.  Later, my boy confessed that he had been pulling out his hair.  The reason was attributed to psychological stress in school brought on by the heavy workload.  I was stunned and was at a temporary loss on what to do.  All this while, my wife and I have been focused on our older boy because of his PSLE, and haven't been too strict with the younger child.  Ironically, the younger kid is the one exhibiting abnormal behaviour.  We sat down with him and explained how his habit of pulling hair will only make him look uglier.  If he is stressed by the heavy workload in school, he should inform his teacher.  We can brainstorm ways to cope with it.

By the way, a Straits Times reporter wrote about the story of how I met my wife.  The article appeared recently on the Sunday Times.  I hope it will inspire many to believe that love at first sight is indeed possible.  Hee.

Signing off for now.  Take care!

---

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DBS FY2023 Earning Result

DBS Group ("DBS") reported their FY2023 earning result this morning [here].  Here is a quick dive into the numbers:

Numbers in S$ million unless stated otherwise.

Full Year Ending	31 Dec 2023	31 Dec 2022	% Change
Total Income	20,180	16,502	22.3
Profit Before Tax	11,739	9,382	25.1
Net Profit	10,286	8,193	25.5
EPS (S$)	3.87	3.15	22.8
Net Book Value (S$)	23.14	21.17	9.30

FY23 net interest margin (NIM) is 2.15% (FY22: 1.75%).  Return on equity is 18.0% (FY22: 15.0%).  Non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is constant at 1.1% (FY22: 1.1%).  Compared to the first half, 2H2023 net profit fell 4%.  Total income increased 2% due to the consolidation of Citi Taiwan.  Excluding Citi Taiwan, total income was maintained at the previous half's record, as a higher NIM offset the impact of seasonally lower non-interest income in 4Q2023.

DBS maintained guidance for 2024 net interest income to be around 2023 levels, supported by consolidation of Citi Taiwan and trade-off between NIM and loan growth.  2024 NIM is expected to be slightly below 2023 exit NIM of 2.13%.  2024 fee income growth is expected to be double-digit, supported by Citi Taiwan's wealth management inflows as well as card income.

DBS declared a final dividend of 54 cents per share (2022: 42 cents), Ex Date is 5 Apr 2024, Pay Date is 19 Apr 2024.  The bank also announced a bonus issue on the basis of one bonus share for every existing 10 DBS ordinary shares held.   The bonus shares will only qualify for 1H2024 interim dividend onwards.  Nonetheless, the bank is confident of maintaining a dividend at $2.16 per share over the enlarged share base.

My Thoughts
Contrary to analysts' expectations, DBS did NOT announce a special dividend this year.  On the other hand, the bank announced a 1-for-10 stock dividend.  This comes as a pleasant surprise.  DBS is confident of 24% growth in FY2024 DPS, signifying a dividend yield of 7.5% based on last close price of $31.65.

I will await more details of the bonus issue.  At current valuation, DBS is suitably attractive.  But due to the high share price, I will have to budget my capital carefully for any new purchase.

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You have S-Reits. What about S-Banks?

Perhaps the worst kept secret in the financial world today is that the U.S. Federal Reserve wants to bring the benchmark overnight borrowing rate lower this year.

A lower rate means that banks will have to lower their loan rates, resulting in a compression of the Net Interest Margin (NIM) - the lifeblood of their profit.

For the uninitiated, NIM is the difference between the rate banks charge their borrowers versus the rate banks pay to depositors.  Banks cannot afford to lower their deposit interest rate too much.  Otherwise, depositors will flock to another bank.  This leads to the dilemma above.

Accordingly, broker analysts have started to downgrade their view of the local banking sector, as reported [here] and [here].

However, it is my belief that the Singapore banks remain an attractive investment proposition.

DBS 9M23 total income was S$15.2B (up 27% y/y); UOB was S$10.5B (up 28% y/y) over the same period; and OCBC was S$10.2B (up 24% y/y).  9M23 net profit was S$7.89B (up 35% y/y), S$4.3B (up 26% y/y) and S$5.4B (up 32% y/y) respectively.  Even if the NIM is compressed come 2H24 and loan growth stalls, the banks will still be highly profitable.

Unlike other global banks which suffered significant losses due to investment and trading, our local banks are cautious risk-takers and big brother MAS is always watching over their shoulder.  I wouldn't expect any rouge trader to bring the house down.

I read [here] that the three banks had the highest S$2.6B of net institutional selling in 2023.  When the professionals decide to park their funds elsewhere, they sell by the buckets and price retracement occurs.  This presents an opportunity for us retail investors to buy the bank stocks cheaper.

If you are big on S-Reits, I recommend to get some S-Banks (Singapore banks) exposure too, never mind that the quantum is large for the lot size.  The banks are in a strong position to grow and increase their payout over the long run.

If you worry about over-paying, you can use the Price-to-Book Value (P/B) Ratio as a yardstick to determine whether the bank stock is cheap or expensive.  The P/B ratio measures the market's valuation of a company relative to its book value.  For banks, it is considered a less volatile measure compared to the Price-to-Earnings Ratio.

The table below shows the P/B ratio for UOB, and is taken from Morningstar, which you can access for free [here]:

Source: Morningstar

UOB is currently trading at a P/B ratio of 1.04, close to its 5-year average of 1.05.  In layman terms, it is not exactly expensive *relative* to its history.  (Remember: valuation needs to be evaluated in a relative manner, either against its peers or compared to historical data.)

Circling back to my opening paragraph, all these institutional selling is banked on - pardon the pun - the U.S. Fed cutting interest rate.  What happens if U.S. inflation reverse its trend and head back up?  In all likelihood, the Fed will maintain the current rate, which is a boon for the banks.

Hope the above information is useful.

As usual, here is a disclaimer: I hold shares in DBS, UOB and OCBC Bank.  This post is NOT a recommendation to buy any stock.  Please do your homework and review your financial circumstances before making any investment decision.

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Portfolio Summary for May 2023

As of 31 May 2023

CDP

Security	# shares	Price S$	%
DBS	400	31.33	3.33
UOB	400	28.06	2.98
OCBC Bank	700	12.22	2.27
SGX	2,700	9.25	6.64
iFast	5,700	4.51	6.83
ST Engineering	6,900	3.73	6.84
CapitaLand Investment	7,400	3.40	6.68
SATS	8,200	2.63	5.73
Powermatic Data	8,500	2.66	6.01
TheHourGlass	5,000	1.99	2.64
Micro-Mechanics	14,200	1.84	6.94
VICOM	14,000	1.78	6.62
Sheng Siong	13,000	1.62	5.60
Nanofilm	15,400	1.49	6.10
Genting Singapore	11,700	1.02	3.17
Credit Bureau Asia	14,300	0.95	3.63
HRnetGroup	21,900	0.75	4.39
TalkMed Group	14,500	0.43	1.66
China Sunsine	41,800	0.41	4.61
HC Surgical	35,500	0.40	3.73
Kimly	27,000	0.34	2.44
Silverlake Axis	15,000	0.29	1.18

Portfolio Market Value = $376,403
YTD Dividends Received = $6,490
YTD SBL Fees Received = $694

Trades
- Bought 100 shares of DBS.
- Bought 100 shares of UOB.
- Bought 2,200 shares of VICOM.
- Bought 3,100 shares of Micro-Mechanics.
- Sold 11,200 shares of ComfortDelGro.

SRS

Security	# shares	Price S$	%
DBS	100	31.33	2.14
UOB	200	28.06	3.84
OCBC Bank	900	12.22	7.52
SGX	1,300	9.25	8.23
iFast	2,100	4.51	6.48
ST Engineering	3,000	3.73	7.65
CapitaLand Investment	2,600	3.40	6.05
SATS	3,800	2.63	6.84
Powermatic Data	3,400	2.66	6.19
Micro-Mechanics	5,400	1.84	6.80
VICOM	5,500	1.78	6.70
Sheng Siong	8,700	1.62	9.64
Nanofilm	5,500	1.49	5.61
Credit Bureau Asia	5,700	0.95	3.72
TalkMed Group	5,800	0.43	1.71
China Sunsine	10,800	0.41	3.07
HC Surgical	19,500	0.40	5.27
Kimly	5,800	0.34	1.35
Silverlake Axis	6,000	0.29	1.21

Portfolio Market Value = $146,186

Trades
- Bought 100 shares of DBS.
- Bought 200 shares of UOB.
- Bought 800 shares of VICOM.
- Bought 2,300 shares of Micro-Mechanics.
- Sold 6,900 shares of ComfortDelGro.

Singapore Savings Bonds

Security	Amount ($)	Avg Yld %
GX18070N	12,500	2.63
GX22120S	14,000	3.47
GX23010Z	15,000	3.26

Portfolio Market Value = $41,500

Commentary:

There is an old adage to "sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger's Day." (St. Leger's Day refers to a horse racing festival in Britian, happening on 14 to 17 September this year.) It was meant for investors to avoid the stock market's seasonally weaker performance between May and October.

Contrary to this advice, I bought more shares than sold this month. As prices retreated, I added DBS, UOB, VICOM and Micro-Mechanics. I must admit - I'm not smart enough to buy at the bottom. I just thought that at current levels, I can start nibbling bit by bit. We will never know how far (down) the prices can go, so I set aside some capital to buy the shares at pre-set levels. If the market turns up, great because the value of my position increases; if the market continues to tank, no problem too. I get the chance to buy at better prices.

DBS reported another set of record-breaking result [here]. 1Q23 total income was S$4.67b, up 44% YoY. Net profit was S$2.57b, up 43% YoY. ROE improved to 18.6%, up 5.5% YoY. NIM gained 8 bps QoQ to 2.69% while NPL remained stable at 1.1%. 42 cents DPS was declared. CEO Piyush Gupta wrote that the NIM has likely peaked in 1Q, and guided full year NIM to be around 2.05-2.10%. In its latest Investor Day presentation [here], DBS CFO Chng Sok Hui made a bold prediction that DBS will achieve "earnings of $10b+ and ROE of 15%-17% in the medium term, assuming interest rates do not return to unusually low levels".

OCBC reported a good set of results too [here]. 1Q23 total income was S$3.35b, up 27% YoY. Net profit was S$1.88b, up 39% YoY. ROE improved to 14.7%, up 4.1% YoY. NIM dropped 1 bp QoQ to 2.30% while NPL improved 0.1 QoQ to 1.1%. No dividend was declared. CEO Helen Wong guided 2023 NIM to be in the region of 2.2% and loan growth around low to mid single-digit. She also assured that OCBC's robust capital position can support the targeted 50% dividend payout. In a Business Times interview [here], the CEO is confident that OCBC is in a good position to capture wealth and trade flows given its strong links between Greater China and the ASEAN region.

Despite the stellar results, the local bank stocks took a beating in May. The Street consensus is that NIM has peaked and NPL may increase as the economy enters a recession. Some asset managers are even expecting a rate cut by the U.S. Fed in the second half of 2023, which in my opinion, seems to be a premature call at this point in time. This stands in stark contrast with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard's comment [here] that he expects two more rate hikes in 2023 to quell inflation.

And then there is the U.S. debt ceiling drama during mid-month between the Republicans and Democrats. No one truly believes the United States should default on its debt obligations, just that each party tries to leverage on the situation to advance their own agenda. The tussle generated volatility in the market, which is good for opportunistic buying.

May is a good month where I received cash dividends from several companies. Total amount received year-to-date in my CDP portfolio is $6,490.29. Not a lot of money, but it is one step closer to my goal of generating cashflow from investing in fundamentally strong companies.

I signed up for SGX Securities Borrowing and Lending (SBL) Pool some years ago [here]. I can see some of my shares being lent out to other investors. I earn interest (plus owed dividends) after the short sellers return the shares. If you meet the mininum requirements, I recommend to sign up for this programme to earn side income.

I sold my shares of ComfortDelGro (CDG). The rationale was covered in my April blog post [here]. I want to consolidate my capital and make more concentrated bets. CDG share hasn't performed well post-pandemic. With this sale, I'm officially divested of this public transport operator. By the way, CDG recently announced their 1Q23 result [here]. Revenue climbed 2.1% YoY to $906.4m, but Operating Profit dropped 51.6% YoY to $50.9m. The decline was attributed to inflationary cost pressures on Public Transport Services.

I have two AIA saving policies maturing in May and June respectively this year. I signed up for them when I was in N.S. The annual premium was a small sum that I faithfully paid, even when I was hard on cash. I am glad for being disciplined on this commitment throughout my university days and working life. The principal and compounded coupons are a welcome boost to my dry powder for stock investments. (Truth be told, I had forgotten why I took the policies in the first place!)

I had received some units of CapitaLand Ascott Trust from the last dividend corp action of CapitaLand Investment. Quite a hassle to sell odd lots. Will try to offload them at the right time.

Money matters aside, I visited a few secondary schools' Open House this month. I thought it might be good to check out what those schools have to offer. I'm intrigued by the Integrated Programme (IP) [link] as well as the Direct School Admission for Secondary Schools [link]. I hope my boys will be able to qualify for these programmes.

Until next time, take care!

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DBS and SGX

Somebody just dumped 11.1m shares of DBS at MOC:

Same for dumping 7.9m shares of SGX:

Not a phenomenon that you get to see everyday. Given it is EOM, it must be some fund doing portfolio rebalance.

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Portfolio Summary for February 2022

As of 28 February 2022

CDP

Security	# shares	Price S$	%
DBS	300	33.82	3.63
OCBC Bank	700	11.67	2.93
SGX	1,200	9.34	4.01
SATS	3,900	3.97	5.55
ST Engineering	6,800	3.82	9.31
CapitaLand Invest	2,700	3.69	3.57
Micro-Mechanics	1,300	3.20	1.49
Powermatic Data	5,000	2.80	5.02
Singtel	6,100	2.52	5.51
TheHourGlass	15,400	2.00	11.03
Sheng Siong	13,000	1.52	7.08
ComfortDelGro	11,200	1.41	5.66
Genting Singapore	11,700	0.77	3.23
HRnetGroup	21,900	0.775	6.08
HC Surgical	35,500	0.48	6.10
China Sunsine	41,800	0.485	7.26
Kimly	27,000	0.39	3.77
Silverlake Axis	60,800	0.285	6.21
CL Int Com Trust	3,400	2.11	2.57

Portfolio Market Value = $279,156

Trade Actions
- Bought 10,800 shares of China Sunsine Chemical Holdings.
- Sold 400 shares of DBS.
- Sold 800 shares of OCBC Bank.
- Sold 2,700 shares of CapitaLand Investment.

SRS

Security	# shares	Price S$	%
OCBC Bank	900	11.67	11.48
SGX	1,300	9.34	13.27
SATS	2,200	3.97	9.55
ST Engineering	3,000	3.82	12.52
Singtel	2,000	2.52	5.51
Sheng Siong	8,700	1.52	14.45
ComfortDelGro	6,900	1.41	10.63
HC Surgical	19,500	0.48	10.23
China Sunsine	10,800	0.485	5.72
Silverlake Axis	21,300	0.285	6.63

Portfolio Market Value = $91,501

Trade Actions
- Bought 10,800 shares of China Sunsine Chemical Holdings.

Commentary:

It's earnings galore in February. The bulk of companies on my watchlist reported an improved set of results. China Sunsine in particular, reported a significant increase in revenue and profit. HRnetGroup also reported a hefty gain in revenue due to a much better job placement market.

As stock prices climbed in early February, I took some profit on my stake in DBS, OCBC Bank and CapitaLand Investment. It was a timely move as the Russia-Ukraine war broke out thereafter.

Even though the war is thousands of miles away, it grabbed my attention as a similar situation could have happened to Singapore, if our bigger neighbours are aggressive and militarily potent. Peace can never be taken for granted.

Closer to home, we have the inflation war and the COVID-19 war to fight. During my weekly grocery trip, I observed how the cost of food items has increased. Some prices jumped nearly 10%. And it wasn't just food, but other necessities too, like energy. My friends are complaining about the continual jack-up in fuel pump prices. There was an article describing how bigger electricity bills are causing a headache for F&B owners [news].

Then there is the virus. Singapore is seeing daily case load in the tens of thousands. On my Facebook wall, several friends posted about being tested COVID-19 positive. Seems like it is a matter of when - not if - one would get infected. I do hope the pandemic ends with the Omicron variant. The world cannot afford to deal with another more lethal and transmissible strain.

Sheesh. For my own sanity and emotional health, I ought to stop reading all these depressing stuff in the news and social media.

On a more positive note, I had just completed my yearly evaluation with my boss. Thankfully, my performance had met his expectation in 2021, and I received a performance bonus and a pay bump.

I read in Straits Times how a man of my age had been out of employment for a year and is struggling to land a job [news]. I am grateful I still have a position and can provide for my family. I am mindful of how people tend to increase their expenditure with a higher salary. I see no need for a change in my current lifestyle. I am comfortable staying in a HDB estate and not in a condominium. I am comfortable taking public transportation and not owning a car. I am comfortable packing food from hawker centres and not dining in fancy restaurants. Sure, these status perks are wonderful, but I don't think they will give me any more fulfillment than the simple pleasures I am enjoying in my life right now.

To know that I have the CHOICE (to spend more money freely when I want to) is already a satisfying feeling in itself.

In the recent Budget 2022 announcement, Finance Minister Lawrence Wong confirmed the GST will be increased to 8% and 9% in 2023 and 2024 respectively. Some folks gripe about the double whammy of tax and inflation. Then again, there is never a good time to raise taxes. Better the bitter medicine now than a bigger pill to swallow later down the road. And I just watched CNA's Talking Point documentary, in which a tax expert said that 9% may not be the end. Singapore may need the GST to be around 12% to 15% in ten to fifteen years' time in order to sustain the budget [video]. Given my low propensity to consume (i.e. thriftiness), the impact on me and my family should be limited. (In fact, I often joke to my wife that if everybody were like me, Singapore would have an ailing service economy!)

In the blink of an eye, we are nearly through the first calendar quarter. My boss promised more responsibilities for me this year. Ugh. Sounds like more challenges coming my way. But really, having been in this competitive IT industry for a decade now, I should get comfortable being uncomfortable. What I earn commensurates with the value I bring to the table for my clients. Ideally, if I can accomplish more (result) with less (effort), then it will be a win-win outcome. To derive full benefit of the Pareto Principle, this is my short term goal. My long term goal remains the same - to build a sizeable asset portfolio that generates a meaningful passive income. And I am confident I am taking concrete steps in the right direction.

Until next time, stay safe my friends!

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Portfolio Summary for September 2020

As of 30 September 2020

CDP

Security	# shares	Price S$	%
DBS	700	19.91	7.84
OCBC Bank	1,500	8.42	7.11
SGX	1,200	9.15	6.18
SATS	3,900	2.83	6.21
ST Engineering	4,100	3.46	7.98
CapitaLand	5,400	2.71	8.23
Singtel	6,100	2.12	7.28
Powermatic Data	2,800	2.65	4.17
Micro-Mechanics	1,300	2.28	1.67
ComfortDelGro	7,900	1.41	6.27
Genting Singapore	11,700	0.67	4.41
TheHourGlass	15,400	0.67	5.80
HRnetGroup	21,900	0.45	5.54
China Sunsine	31,000	0.34	5.93
HC Surgical	19,100	0.32	3.44
Nam Lee Metal	28,200	0.295	4.68
Silverlake Axis	20,800	0.29	3.39
Kimly	27,000	0.255	3.87

Portfolio Value = $177,759

Trade Actions
- Sold 4,700 shares of Old Chang Kee.
- Bought 300 shares of DBS.
- Bought 1,900 shares of CapitaLand.

SRS

Security	# shares	Price S$	%
OCBC Bank	900	8.42	11.79
SGX	1,300	9.15	18.51
SATS	2,200	2.83	9.69
ST Engineering	1,700	3.46	9.15
Singtel	2,000	2.12	6.60
CapitaComm Trust	5,000	1.64	12.76
Sheng Siong	8,700	1.61	21.79
HC Surgical	19,500	0.32	9.71

Portfolio Value = $64,268

Trade Actions
- None

Commentary:

Summer has come and passed
The innocent can never last
Wake me up when September ends
- Green Day

It has come to the end of summer season, though technically there are only two seasons in Singapore - sunny and rainy. If you had hibernated since the start of the year and only woken up now, you would have avoided the most turmultous period in the stock market since the 2009 GFC. Naturally, you would have also missed one of the best opportunities to build equity positions.

It feels like the worst is behind us, with the government hinting on Phase 3 re-opening. The market is trending sideways, with no clear path ahead. I have stopped monitoring the market throughout the day and focused on my work instead. Under the grim atmosphere of retrenchment and business closures, I am glad I still have a job and no pay cut so far.

In September, I have added small stakes in DBS and CapitaLand when their prices dipped during mid-month. It was also fortuitous that I got out of Old Chang Kee at a favorable price.

My war chest has dwindled as I went on a buying spree over the past three months. I will need to save up again. Moreover, my boys' endowment premiums are looming near the end of the year, which will certainly take away a significant chunk of my cash. I guess it is just another form of investing for their sake and mine, as I do not want the burden of forking out a large sum for their tertiary education when I am near retirement.

Looking forward, I shall concentrate on rebuiling my cash board. Some stocks on my watchlist have run up quite a bit, and I do not want to chase the rally for FOMO. It is better to be patient and wait for retracement before nibbling.

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