Thursday, October 31, 2024

Portfolio Summary for October 2024

As of 31 October 2024

CDP

Security # shares Price S$ %
DBS 440 38.66 4.05
UOB 400 32.16 3.06
OCBC Bank 700 15.19 2.53
SGX 3,200 11.35 8.64
ST Engineering 6,900 4.54 7.45
Powermatic Data 8,500 3.38 6.83
TheHourGlass 19,600 1.56 7.27
Sheng Siong 19,100 1.59 7.22
Micro-Mechanics 18,400 1.70 7.44
VICOM Ltd 21,500 1.33 6.80
UMS 31,200 1.02 7.57
Credit Bureau Asia 30,100 1.09 7.80
Nanofilm 36,100 0.825 7.08
HRnetGroup 21,900 0.68 3.54
TalkMed Group 34,500 0.455 3.73
China Sunsine 41,800 0.455 4.52
Kimly 27,000 0.325 2.09
HC Surgical 35,500 0.28 2.36
Portfolio Value = S$420,442
YTD Dividends Received = S$13,875
YTD SBL Fees Received = S$270

Trades
None

SRS

Security # shares Price S$ %
TheHourGlass 5,000 1.56 4.95
Sheng Siong 8,700 1.59 8.78
Micro-Mechanics 5,400 1.70 5.83
VICOM Ltd 5,500 1.33 4.64
Nanofilm 12,500 0.825 6.55
HRnetGroup 7,500 0.68 3.24
Kimly 5,800 0.325 1.20
HC Surgical 19,500 0.28 3.47
NetLink NBN Trust 108,000 0.895 61.35
Portfolio Value = S$157,546

Trades
- Sold 5,700 shares of Credit Bureau Asia.

Singapore Savings Bonds

Security Amount Coupon Now
GX22120S S$14,000 3.26%
GX23010Z S$15,000 2.95%
GX23110V S$20,000 3.21%
GX23120Z S$20,000 3.30%
GX24060A S$20,000 3.26%
GX24070S S$20,000 3.26%
GX24080W S$20,000 3.19%
Portfolio Value = S$129,000

Speculative Play

Security # shares Price US$
Kep Pacific Oak REIT 70,000 0.25
Portfolio Value = US$17,500

Trades
None


Commentary:
October came and went in a jiffy.  Markets stayed largely rangebound.  The local Straits Times Index declined 0.74 percent month-on-month, while the S&P 500 Index rose 0.89 percent over the same period.  As none of my stock price alerts was triggered, I did not trade for my CDP portfolio.  Eyes are on the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election on 5 November.  Be it Kamala Harris or Donald Trump in the White House, markets will probably react (either direction) to the election result.  (The betting odds are in favour of a Trump victory. [link])

As planned, I whittled down my SRS portfolio by selling my stake in Credit Bureau Asia.  I will re-deploy the cash into the market at a suitable time.

During mid-October, I experienced an epiphany, which urged me to take action on a plan.  Implementing the Plan requires patience, sheer discipline and a sizable financial commitment.  I am good with the patience and discipline bit.  It is the financial commitment that I have concern about.  While my retirement will not be in jeopardy (since I am still earning a regular wage from my job), it means I will not be able to grow my portfolios as fast as I hoped.  The strange thing is, I have been cruising along life just fine, and this relevation struck.  I haven't felt such an intense feeling about something for so long.  It is as if the Divine is telling me, "Go for it."  Looking back, there were unrelated events in my earlier years which, when seen in hindsight now, seem to have been arranged to prepare me for this decision.

My life journey has come to a fork - either I venture forth on this unlit, uncharted path, which I have no role model or mentor, or I stay safe trodding along the highway of mediocrity, well within my comfort zone.  It will take years of consistent, persistent effort before I can see the fruit of my labour.   In fact, I may face utter failure too, with money lost and nothing to show for the endeavour.  That said, I know in my heart of hearts that I will regret in my old age if I do not give it a shot.

Over the last two weeks, I have been making preparations.  I had spent time reading up, understanding the risks involved, engaging in careful thought about my strategy, debating internally on the merits, experimenting a little, before formalizing the entire Plan in writing.

I know I am ready, come hell or high water.  The first phase of the Plan begins in November.  Game on.

Sounds like a mid-life crisis, isn't it?  Haha.

At work, my TL told me the senior managers have created a new job grade higher than the one I am currently in.  The role requires someone with experience and tenure to drive strategic engagement with clients.  I was nominated as the sole employee in APAC to trial for this role.  On hearing the announcement, my first reaction was, "OMG, I don't feel competent enough to take on the role."  Nonetheless, my TL insisted that I take up the challenge.  She thinks that there is no one else more qualified, and she is confident I will do a good job.  Naturally, a higher job grade comes with higher renumeration.  Not wanting to let my TL down, I agreed hesitantly, wondering what kind of a deep hole I am getting myself into.  Management still needs some time to hash out the responsibilities and KPIs.  Will await more details.

At home, I am so happy the school examinations are over.  I can finally sit back, relax and look forward to our family overseas trip in December.  I trust my kids to have done their best.  So far the result for my younger boy is satisfactory.  All four subject scores are in the AL1 band.  As for my older boy, we have just completed the DSA school selection.  The outcome will only be known when he gets back his PSLE result around late November.  My boy opted for RI (WL) > HCI (WL) > CHS (CO), in decreasing order of preference.  I doubt any student will give up a coveted Confirmed Offer in RI and HCI.  Moreover, we have no idea where my boy stands in the Waitlist queue, so the chance of my boy getting into RI or HCI is minimal.  We are mentally prepared for him to enroll into CHS. ("My Blood is Green!")

Lately, my wife and I have been discussing our retirement schedule.  It is on track, and we should be able to quit our full-time jobs by age 55.  Most of our liabilities (house, healthcare costs, children's university fees) have been sorted out or adequately covered by insurance policies, so we are not worried.  I am pondering whether we should still stay partially employed, albeit in a less demanding job with shorter hours and lower pay, but my wife is not so keen.  Haha.

Until next time.  Happy Halloween, my friends!




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Monday, October 7, 2024

Money-making was a matter of luck: Ray Dalio

The Straits Times correspondent Sumiko Tan had a short lunch interview with Ray Dalio, billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, which is currently the world's biggest hedge fund.  You can catch the video below:



Over the short six-minute conversation, Ray Dalio remained candid and humble.  In his own words, he described how making money as a hedge fund manager was really a matter of luck.

The money-making part was a matter of luck for me, because it turned out that the game I liked to play is the markets, and happens to be if you play that game well, then it's very rewarding.
Ray Dalio

While I am not a professional investor, and I don't aspire to be one, I feel fortunate to be able to invest in the public equity market too.  I am lucky to be able to build up my portfolios, which will help to cover my expenses when I retire from work someday.

Hope you find the interview interesting too.




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Monday, September 30, 2024

Portfolio Summary for September 2024

As of 30 September 2024

CDP

Security # shares Price S$ %
DBS 440 38.05 4.00
UOB 400 32.17 3.07
OCBC Bank 700 15.10 2.53
SGX 3,200 11.42 8.73
ST Engineering 6,900 4.66 7.68
Powermatic Data 8,500 3.47 7.05
TheHourGlass 19,600 1.60 7.49
Sheng Siong 19,100 1.53 6.98
Micro-Mechanics 18,400 1.61 7.08
VICOM Ltd 21,500 1.36 6.99
UMS 31,200 1.07 7.97
Credit Bureau Asia 30,100 0.93 6.69
Nanofilm 36,100 0.865 7.46
HRnetGroup 21,900 0.675 3.53
TalkMed Group 34,500 0.43 3.54
China Sunsine 41,800 0.475 4.74
Kimly 27,000 0.325 2.10
HC Surgical 35,500 0.28 2.37
Portfolio Value = S$418,611
YTD Dividends Received = S$13,275
YTD SBL Fees Received = S$243

Trades
None

SRS

Security # shares Price S$ %
TheHourGlass 5,000 1.60 4.85
Sheng Siong 8,700 1.53 8.08
Micro-Mechanics 5,400 1.61 5.27
VICOM Ltd 5,500 1.36 4.54
Credit Bureau Asia 5,700 0.93 3.22
Nanofilm 12,500 0.865 6.56
HRnetGroup 7,500 0.675 3.07
Kimly 5,800 0.325 1.14
HC Surgical 19,500 0.28 3.31
NetLink NBN Trust 108,000 0.915 59.95
Portfolio Value = S$164,826

Trades
- Sold 10,800 shares of China Sunsine Chemicals.

Singapore Savings Bonds

Security Amount Coupon Now
GX22120S S$14,000 3.26%
GX23010Z S$15,000 2.95%
GX23110V S$20,000 3.21%
GX23120Z S$20,000 3.30%
GX24060A S$20,000 3.26%
GX24070S S$20,000 3.26%
GX24080W S$20,000 3.19%
Portfolio Value = S$129,000

Speculative Play

Security # shares Price US$
Kep Pacific Oak REIT 70,000 0.27
Portfolio Value = US$18,900

Trades
None


Commentary:
September passed so swiftly.  We are down to the last calendar quarter of the year.  The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to go ahead with a 50 basis point cut, bringing the Federal Fund Target Rate down to the range between 4.75% and 5.00%.  As expected, the local S-Reits found a strong tailwind from this event.  The SGX S-REIT Index gained 4.04% month-on-month.  The benchmark Straits Times Index was even more impressive, soaring 4.13% over the same period.

Contrary to the jubilant mood in the market, I sat pat on my hands and did not execute any buy trade.  It is better to be patient now and wait for the bullishness to recede first.  Legendary investor Warren Buffett offered this timeless wisdom in his 1986 Berkshire Hathaway Chairman's Letter [here]:

What we do know, however, is that occasional outbreaks of those two super-contagious diseases, fear and greed, will forever occur in the investment community. The timing of these epidemics will be unpredictable. And the market aberrations produced by them will be equally unpredictable, both as to duration and degree. Therefore, we never try to anticipate the arrival or departure of either disease. Our goal is more modest: we simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.
Warren Buffett

Be fearful when others are greedy.  Greed is clearly visible, with perhaps a touch of fear (of missing out).  The S&P 500 Index surged to hit a lifetime high on September 19 after the interest rate cut [news].  That said, what goes up must come down.  Call me a fool for missing the ride, but I am keeping my powder dry for a more rational buying level down the road.

Q: Will the opportunity come?

Me: You bet.  When the momentum swings the other way.

Q: When will it come?

Me: I don't know, but I ain't losing sleep about it.

I tendered my Silverlake Axis shares and received a cheque as well as 37,100 Redeemable Preferred Shares ("RPS") from the offeror E2I Pte Ltd.  The RPS came in the form of a certificate via registered mail.  This is my first time holding a private security, and possibly the closest to holding a physical share certificate.  All of my other holdings are held electronically within SGX CDP.

I continue to trim my SRS portfolio by selling China Sunsine Chemicals ("CSSC").  CSSC management has been engaging in daily share buyback, so I am pretty sure the company acquired my stake.  As mentioned in my previous blog post [here], I am consolidating the holdings in my SRS portfolio for easier monitoring.

In the family, my two kids are having their end-of-year examinations now, with my elder boy going through his PSLE.  We try to minimize any outing and social gathering during this stressful period.  However, we still make regular visits to the Ang Mo Kio Public Library on weekends.  We find the library to be a more conducive place for my kids to revise, compared to staying home.  There are simply too many distractions in the house.  I am so looking forward to the day when the examinations are over.

Signing off for now.  Take care!




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Saturday, August 31, 2024

Portfolio Summary for August 2024

As of 31 August 2024

CDP

Security # shares Price S$ %
DBS 440 36.36 3.88
UOB 400 31.39 3.04
OCBC Bank 700 14.55 2.47
SGX 3,200 10.83 8.40
ST Engineering 6,900 4.45 7.45
Powermatic Data 8,500 3.55 7.32
TheHourGlass 19,600 1.53 7.27
Sheng Siong 19,100 1.51 6.99
Micro-Mechanics 18,400 1.54 6.87
VICOM Ltd 21,500 1.32 6.88
UMS 31,200 1.02 7.72
Credit Bureau Asia 30,100 0.89 6.50
Nanofilm 36,100 0.745 6.52
HRnetGroup 21,900 0.695 3.69
TalkMed Group 34,500 0.395 3.30
China Sunsine 41,800 0.395 4.00
Kimly 27,000 0.31 2.03
Silverlake Axis 37,100 0.375 3.37
HC Surgical 35,500 0.265 2.28
Portfolio Value = S$412,377
YTD Dividends Received = S$12,530
YTD SBL Fees Received = S$158

Trades
- Bought 31,200 shares of UMS Holdings.

SRS

Security # shares Price S$ %
TheHourGlass 5,000 1.53 4.73
Sheng Siong 8,700 1.51 8.12
Micro-Mechanics 5,400 1.54 5.14
VICOM Ltd 5,500 1.32 4.49
Credit Bureau Asia 5,700 0.89 3.14
Nanofilm 12,500 0.745 5.76
HRnetGroup 7,500 0.695 3.22
China Sunsine 10,800 0.395 2.64
Kimly 5,800 0.31 1.11
HC Surgical 19,500 0.265 3.20
NetLink NBN Trust 108,000 0.875 58.44
Portfolio Value = S$161,693

Trades
- Sold 1,300 shares of SGX.
- Sold 6,000 shares of Silverlake Axis.
- Bought 12,000 units of NetLink NBN Trust.

Singapore Savings Bonds

Security Amount Coupon Now
GX22120S S$14,000 3.26%
GX23010Z S$15,000 2.95%
GX23110V S$20,000 3.21%
GX23120Z S$20,000 3.30%
GX24060A S$20,000 3.26%
GX24070S S$20,000 3.26%
GX24080W S$20,000 3.19%
Portfolio Value = S$129,000

Speculative Play

Security # shares Price US$
Kep Pacific Oak REIT 70,000 0.26
Portfolio Value = US$18,200

Trades
None


Commentary:
August is always a favourite month, because we celebrate three birthdays in the family - my wife's, my older boy's and mine.  (Four if you include our nation's birthday.)  Contrary to the usual birthday cake, we decided to celebrate by indulging in crab dishes from Melben Seafood restaurant.  It was a messy affair, but oh so finger-licking good!

In the equity market, Citigroup issued SELL analyst recommendations on all three local banks DBS, UOB and OCBC.  This caused their prices to fall more than 5 percent on 5 Aug.  As the interest rate cut materializes, the bank stocks are likely to take a hit.  That is my cue to load up.  *Rub hands in anticipation*

I initiated a new position in UMS Holdings ("UMS").  This is the second semiconductor industry counter in my portfolio.  The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical in nature, hence dramatic swings in earnings are to be expected.  So far, UMS fundamentals looks all right.  I will monitor for a while before considering whether to add on.

I continued to adjust my SRS portfolio by closing off my position in SGX as the stock hit new 52-week high.  Interestingly, after the announcement of Silverlake Axis ("SLA") voluntary unconditional offer (see my last blog post [here]), SLA share price shot up past the cash offer of 36 cents per share.  I took the opportunity to sell the shares in my SRS portfolio, pocketing a tiny extra premium.

I also added more units of NetLink NBN Trust ("NetLink").  I am not too concerned by the recent y/y drop in 1Q2025 revenue and EBITDA.  Over the long run, NetLink still has the opportunity to grow as more new HDB housing estates get developed.  Net gearing is maintained at a comfortable 26.5 percent.

As mentioned in my previous post [here], August marked a new financial milestone in my family.  My wife and I paid off the remaining balance on our DBS home mortgage loan.  We are officially debt free!  It is a fantastic feeling.  I can also kiss my Manulife insurance policy goodbye, which DBS had made us buy for the mortgage.  This is a good S$650 saved every year.

The average yield for October issuance of Singapore Savings Bond ("SSB") has plunged to an estimated 2.77%.  With the expected U.S. Fed interest rate cut, I doubt the SSB yield will get any higher soon.  It is time to switch investment focus back to equities.  I will be paying close attention to the local bank stocks.

The Direct School Admission for Secondary Schools ("DSA-Sec") exercise is over.  My DS (forum jargon for Dear Son) completed the group interview with a third school.  He was able to secure interviews with all three schools in his application.  I am grateful for the good fortune and the opportunity, as I have heard how his peer was rejected outright without any chance for an interview.  As one parent commented, DSA-Sec is starting to become like PSLE - equally stressful for both parent and child.

In the end, my DS was given Confirmed Offer ("CO") for one school, and placed on Wait List ("WL") for the other two schools.  Despite the CO, my DS still wants to apply for one of the WL schools first, as it has been his dream to study there (white uniform, somewhere in Bishan).  Nonetheless, I am happy his calibre was recognized by all three prominent boys' schools.

Signing off for now.  Take care!




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Friday, August 30, 2024

Officially Debt Free

Today marks a financial milestone for my family.  My wife and I paid off the remaining balance on our DBS home mortgage loan.

All S$313,265.01 of it with cold hard cash.

Sadly, no trumpets, no confetti.  We just witness the money get swiped out from our bank account.

Short of the credit card bill which we always clear every month, this means my wife and I are now officially DEBT FREE.
Image by studio4rt on Freepik
The joy of not owing money to anyone is indescribable.  That said, we still have to engage a lawyer to get the house deed back from DBS.  This costs an additional few thousand dollars.  Oh well.

Our next financial milestone is to retire from our jobs with a comfortable sum and recurring passive income.  We give ourselves ten more years as wage slaves before we call it a day.

Thanks for reading!




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Monday, August 26, 2024

Silverlake Axis Voluntary Unconditional Offer


Silverlake Axis ("SLA") announced it received a voluntary unconditional offer today [here].  Existing shareholders can choose between receiving 36 Singapore cents in cash per share, or a combination of 30 Singapore cents in cash and one new redeemable preference share (RPS)  The RPS will be redeemed in five years' time at an amount of 18 Singapore cents.

The cash offer represents a 20 per cent premium over the last traded price of S$0.30.  On the other hand, the NPV of the cash and RPS combination represents a 52 per cent premium over the last traded price, based on my back-of-the-envelope calculations.

It is sad that this financial software company is going to be delisted.  I can understand the rationale for the privatisation, as SLV's share price has been languishing for years now.

I will probably take the cash offer for my SRS portfolio, but the combination of cash and RPS for my CDP portfolio.  I see no replacement counter in the near term, so I will opt for the higher return in my CDP.




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Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Portfolio Summary for July 2024

As of 31 July 2024

CDP

Security # shares Price S$ %
DBS 440 36.59 4.21
UOB 400 32.35 3.38
OCBC Bank 700 14.85 2.72
SGX 3,200 9.85 8.25
ST Engineering 6,900 4.42 7.98
Powermatic Data 8,500 3.52 7.83
Micro-Mechanics 18,400 1.58 7.60
TheHourGlass 19,600 1.58 8.10
Sheng Siong 19,100 1.54 7.69
VICOM Ltd 21,500 1.38 7.76
Credit Bureau Asia 30,100 0.90 7.09
Nanofilm 36,100 0.85 8.03
HRnetGroup 21,900 0.68 3.90
China Sunsine 41,800 0.385 4.21
TalkMed Group 34,500 0.42 3.79
Kimly 27,000 0.31 2.19
Silverlake Axis 37,100 0.29 2.81
HC Surgical 35,500 0.265 2.46
Portfolio Value = S$382,283
YTD Dividends Received = S$6,998
YTD SBL Fees Received = S$126

Trades
- Bought 15,800 shares of CreditBureauAsia.

SRS

Security # shares Price S$ %
SGX 1,300 9.85 7.74
Micro-Mechanics 5,400 1.58 5.15
TheHourGlass 5,000 1.58 4.77
Sheng Siong 8,700 1.54 8.09
VICOM Ltd 5,500 1.38 4.58
Credit Bureau Asia 5,700 0.90 3.10
Nanofilm 12,500 0.85 6.42
HRnetGroup 7,500 0.68 3.08
China Sunsine 10,800 0.385 2.51
Kimly 5,800 0.31 1.09
Silverlake Axis 6,000 0.29 1.05
HC Surgical 19,500 0.265 3.12
NetLink NBN Trust 96,000 0.85 49.29
Portfolio Value = S$165,544

Trades
None

Singapore Savings Bonds

Security Amount Coupon Now
GX22120S S$14,000 3.26%
GX23010Z S$15,000 2.95%
GX23110V S$20,000 3.21%
GX23120Z S$20,000 3.30%
GX24060A S$20,000 3.26%
GX24070S S$20,000 3.26%
GX24080W S$20,000 3.19%
Portfolio Value = S$129,000

Speculative Play

Security # shares Price US$
Kep Pacific Oak REIT 70,000 0.20
Portfolio Value = US$14,000

Trades
None


Commentary:
Another month has passed in a jiffy.

With the U.S. inflation moderating, investors are speculating the U.S. Federal Reserve will finally be able to cut interest rate in September.  While it is considered good news, the market can react in unexpected ways.  For example, the tech stocks experienced a bloody selldown on 24th July, which wiped out 1.3 trillion dollars' worth of valuation on the NASDAQ Exchange.  That said, on the grand scheme of things, it was just a minor correction on an overstretched market rally.

The local Straits Times Index gained a respectable 3.69 percent in July, broadly attributed to the good performance of Seatrium, SATS and Thai Beverage.  Of the stocks on my watchlist, Nanofilm Technologies saw its price climbed 14.1 percent over the month.  I hope the company's ill fortune is finally reversing.

Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT caught a strong tailwind this month.  Its stock price soared 49.3 percent.  I intend to hold on to this speculative play for two years or more, depending on how fast the REIT manager resume its income distribution.

I only bought a single counter in July.  As Credit Bureau Asia faced selling pressure during mid-month, it was an opportunity to scoop up more shares on the cheap for this thinly-traded stock.

We are in the midst of earnings reporting season.  Companies on my watchlist reporting in August include:

1 August 2024 - UOB
2 August 2024 - OCBC Bank (with result including fully acquired GE)
7 August 2024 - Vicom
7 August 2024 - DBS
8 August 2024 - SGX
12 August 2024 - HRnetGroup
13 August 2024 - Nanofilm Technologies
13 August 2024 - China Sunsine Chemical
14 August 2024 - Singapore Technologies
29 August 2024 - Micro-Mechanics

In the political arena, current President Joe Biden has bowed out of the U.S. Presidential race.  With lacklustre performance during the first debate, he was under pressure from fellow Democrats to give up his re-election bid.  However, it is hard to say whether current Vice President Kamala Harris wil be able to edge out former President Donald Trump and secure her place in the White House.  The world will be watching with bated breath for the final election result on 5th November.

I subscribed for $20,000 of August's Singapore Savings Bond (SSB).  The average yield on September's SSB issuance has fallen to an estimated 3.10%, which is lower than my requirement.  Hence, I will not subscribe for the September tranche.

At home, the most exciting thing happening right now is the DSA-Sec selection interview for my older boy.  So far, he has attended two group interviews.  Waiting to hear back from the third school, after submitting his personal statement last month.  Of course, our fervent wish is for him to secure a Confirmed Offer from at least one of these schools.  Fingers crossed!

Signing off for now.  Take care!




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